Pumped-up Steelers optimism not yet impacting gambling lines

Two strong preseason results and a training camp free of injuries to star players has yielded wild optimism about the Steelers within the team’s fanbase.

On Monday, I was listening to our colleague Mark Madden on his talk show on 105.9 The X. He was taking numerous calls from fans now expecting at least 11 wins. One guy offered to bet $50,000 on the Steelers winning 15 games against Madden’s $10,000 that they wouldn’t. Another offered to bet $10,000 against Mark’s $1,000 that they’d go at least 14-3.

That’s a lot of bold talk on a phone line. Keep in mind, the Steelers have only collected 14 wins in a regular season twice in the team’s history (1978, 2004), and they have only gotten to 15 wins once (‘04).

But, hey, a couple of strong first quarters against the Buccaneers and Bills in August should change all that, right?

I’m sticking with my prediction that the Steelers will go 10-7 and make the playoffs as the AFC’s last wild-card team. A month ago, based on the Steelers’ nine-win results the past two years, I thought I was being optimistic.

Now, the rest of the mood in Western Pa. is making me feel that I’m being conservative.

All the hype and Terrible Towel waving about what’s to come once the regular season hits sure isn’t translating to the betting window, though.

At least not to the degree that the numbers are changing very much.

On June 23, we looked at the playoff odds and over-under win totals for the Steelers and some other teams in the AFC. At the time, BetRivers.com had the Steelers’ regular-season over-under win total at 8.5 victories. The cost to bet over 8.5 was a fairly hefty minus-167 (i.e., to win $100, you had to bet $167 dollars). To bet the under, the payout was plus-130 (i.e., bet $100 to win $130).

Related

• Tim Benz: This position group will result in the hardest cuts for Steelers coaches
• First Call: 49ers sign ex-Steeler in advance of opener; Antonio Brown in trouble yet again
• Last chance for Chandon Sullivan, Elijah Riley to state case for Steelers' slot corner job

Two months later, despite all the hoopla and confidence surrounding the Steelers outlook, the team’s regular-season win total remains at 8.5 games, and the payouts on both sides are fairly consistent as well.

As of Wednesday morning, the cost to bet over 8.5 wins has actually dropped to minus-150, and the payout to go under is a slightly less appealing plus-120. That could be the oddsmakers’ way of trying to suck more money toward the over now from potential gamblers who are playing the “wait-and-see” game with potential injuries in the final preseason game.

If you are really feeling cocky about the Steelers, you could slide the line for your bet one game to over 9.5. That will get a tidy payout of plus-130 if you think the Steelers can hit at least 10 wins or +235 if you think they are going to hit at least 11 by betting over 10.5.

Similarly, the odds for the Steelers to make or miss the playoffs are relatively consistent with where they were two months ago. Back on June 23, when we last took a peek at the numbers, the Steelers were at minus-190 to miss the playoffs and plus-150 to make them.

Those odds have narrowed a touch following the wave of enthusiasm for the Black and Gold. But not a ton. The price against the team qualifying for the postseason is down to minus-175, and the payout if they do make it is also down a tick to plus-140. Although, that’s not an overwhelming change, at least not to the degree that we are hearing on the radio and television and reading in print from fans and media.

However you slice it, so far at least, Steelers fans are less likely to put actual dollars on the line at this point than talk-show dollars over a cell-phone rant.

Maybe that’ll change with another impressive (and injury-free) preseason win in Atlanta Thursday night. We’ll check back in the week leading up to Sept. 10.