Recruiting rankings, ratings accurate but imperfect in projecting eventual NFL talent

When former Pitt defensive lineman Calijah Kancey heard his name called as the 19th overall pick in the NFL Draft last spring, he was one of eight former three-star recruits, as ranked by 247Sports, to be selected in the first round.

Kenny Pickett, chosen by the Steelers at No. 20 overall, was one of eight former three-star prospects picked in the 2022 draft’s opening round.

Whether one utilizes the recruiting rankings of any of the four major services (247Sports, Rivals, On3 or ESPN), a trend that’s visible in breaking down past NFL Drafts is that many players who were not “blue-chip” recruits routinely get picked high every year.

Each site has its differences in rankings and evaluation methodology, resulting in different rankings. Those rankings will be noteworthy on national signing day Wednesday, the first day senior Division I and II football recruits can sign with college programs.

“The way that we rank players is not solely based on how they’re performing in high school. It’s much more of a projection than anything else,” said Adam Gorney, national recruiting director for Rivals. “It’s a projection to expected college performance and then NFL Draft position.

“… What we’re looking for is how we think the player is going to perform in college, and then that kind of dovetails into where we think they’re going to be positioned in the NFL Draft. They are much more guidelines than rules.”

Kancey and Pickett fell within the parameters of what 247Sports considers to be a mid-three-star recruit, or “a capable starter for a Power Five football team and an impact player at the Group of Five level.”

Rivals, using its trademark numerical rating system, listed Kancey as a 5.6 three-star prospect and Pickett at 5.5, with both players speculated to be a “potential all-conference candidate and a player deemed to have mid to low-end pro potential and ability to impact at the college level.”

By those broad projections, Kancey, a two-time first-team All-ACC selection and unanimous All-American and ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2022, definitely exceeded expectations.

The same could be said of Pickett, who earned first-team All-American and ACC Player of the Year honors as a senior, in addition to being a finalist for the Heisman Trophy.

And yet, for players who do not achieve four- or five-star status as recruits, a certain stigma exists.

“When you look at three-stars, that is exactly the misconception — if you’re ranked a three-star, we don’t expect much out of you,” Gorney said.

“We probably didn’t expect you to be picked in the first round, but you were definitely someone that could be a late-round NFL Draft pick, a guy that’s a contributor or a long-term guy in the NFL.”

A closer look at the draft, in particular the first round, reveals interesting trends regarding the recruiting backgrounds of selected players.

To be sure, four- and five-star prospects make up the majority of the picks.

Of the 32 players selected in the 2021 draft, 14 were former three-star recruits.

“Everyone wants their five stars, but there’s only 32 at most five-stars in the entire country,” said Sam Spiegelman, national recruiting analyst for On3 Sports. “I think the best players, the kids that have the most success, are the people that realize the ranking system is just a part of the process. It’s not a be-all, end-all by any means. It’s never proven to be.”

That said, there is a direct correlation to achieving five-star status as a recruit and being a draft pick.

Per On3’s Industry Rankings, which incorporate the rankings of 247Sports, Rivals and ESPN, 81.3% of the five-star players eligible for the 2023 draft were selected.

Over the past three drafts, 71% of former five-star players were drafted.

On3 also calculated a five-star prospect is 24 times more likely to be drafted than one with two stars or less.

But without failure, many highly regarded prospects, including five-star players, never get a call on draft day.

Combining data analysis, human opinion and a multitude of other factors to assess talent, recruiting rankings are a useful tool for players, coaches, scouts and fans alike.

However, inherent unpredictability exists, making rankings an imperfect science.

“It is inevitable. There are going to be five-star busts,” Gorney said. “A ranking is just sort of this idea of something about someone; it doesn’t guarantee someone something over another.”