Stats, analytics show Steelers QB Kenny Pickett not throwing downfield

“Throw it deep!”

It’s a cliched and over-simplified cry from fans and armchair quarterbacks who perpetually tend to believe their team’s QB isn’t “going long” enough and instead is merely “dinking-and-dunking.”

But in the case of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Kenny Pickett on Sunday, it was true. The numbers show it, as they have all season.

Pickett did not surpass 100 passing yards until the final play of the 13-10 loss at the Cleveland Browns — and even then, only when George Pickens pitched a lateral to Diontae Johnson on a desperation play that netted 7 extra yards and left Pickett with 106 on the day.

Even with the bump of that play — all but given to them by a Browns’ defense content to make a tackle and seal their victory — Pickett finished with a career-low in yards per attempt (3.79) for any full pro game he has played.

For the season, Pickett is down to 30th among 34 qualifying passers this season in yards per attempt (6.1) and 28th in yards per completion (10.1).

But what about what is called “air yards” — the distance a pass is thrown downfield in the air (not counting any run after the catch)? NFL Next Gen Stats tracks that, and Pickett ranks lowly in it.

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Pickett’s average intended air yards of 7.0 is 30th among 37 qualifying passers. His 4.6 average yards per completion is 31st.

Sunday, Pickett’s numbers in those areas were even worse — 6.1 average intended air yards (IAY) and 2.7 average completed air yards (CAY).

Only two quarterbacks in Week 11 had lower CAY; only four had lower IAY. The only QB in the league this week who had lower numbers than Pickett in both? His counterpart Sunday, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a rookie fifth-round pick making his second career start.

On balls thrown more than 5 yards downfield, Pickett went 5 for 12

Nothing completed more than 14 yds downfield, nothing attempted deeper than 23 yds pic.twitter.com/Sf5t2wOjcE

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) November 20, 2023

According to Pro Football Focus, none of the other 15 quarterbacks who started and finished games during Week 11 (prior to Monday night) attempted fewer passes 20 or more yards downfield than Pickett’s two. Only three others had no completions on such deep passes — all were rookies or a second-year player with fewer starts than Pickett.

The only one to win over the weekend? Thompson-Robinson.

Pickett has attempted just 22 passes at least 20 yards down the field all season. Twenty-nine NFL QBs have attempted more, many of whom have not had 10 starts as Pickett has. Rookie Will Levis already has more (29) in four career games.

Pickett also is tied for 30th in completions on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield with six. His completion percentage on such throws is 27.3%, which ranks 31st.

Sunday against the Browns, Pickett was 0 for 3 on throws 20 or more yards downfield — none were more than 24 yards deep. On throws more than 10 yards downfield, per Next Gen, Pickett was 5 for 12. His deepest completed pass went 14 yards downfield.

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