Steelers 4 Downs: Aaron Rodgers throwing short, shorter, shortest — and not downfield

1. No depth

While much of the blame for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defeat in Chicago last weekend has fallen at the feet of backup quarterback Mason Rudolph and his throw-short attack, the Steelers have been playing it safe in the passing game all season.

No quarterback in the NFL has attempted or completed passes fewer yards downfield on average than the Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers. According to Next Gen Stats, Rodgers’ average pass has an intended depth of 5.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage; his average completed pass is 3.8 “air” yards downfield.

Sharp Football Analysis breaks down the numbers even farther. Almost 31% of Rodgers’ passes this season have been intended at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-highest rate in the league. On the other side of the spectrum, no quarterback has attempted passes at a lower rate either 5 or 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Only 45.3% of Rodgers passes are 5 or more yards downfield; a mere 23.9% are aimed 10-plus yards downfield.

For perspective, the league average for QBs throwing 10 or more yards downfield is 32.7%, and for 5-plus it is 55.1%.

Rodgers is 7 for 28 when attempting passes at least 20 yards downfield this season. He has not completed one of those deep throws in more than a month — since the Oct. 26 loss to the Green Bay Packers. In that span, he’s 0 for 6 with an interception on throws intended 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage.

2. No splash

In large part because Rodgers’ lack of willingness or ability to take shots downfield, the Steelers rank 30th in the NFL in plays of 20 or more yards per game — ahead of only the lowly Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints.

The Steelers had two such plays during last week’s defeat — one was barely so, at 21 yards (a Ben Skowronek reception), and another was something of a gadget play (the Kenneth Gainwell run out of the “tush push” formation).

Even counting that play, the Steelers have just four rushes of at least 20 yards (the other thee came against the Cincinnati Bengals).

Incidentally, the Steelers’ Sunday opponent — the Buffalo Bills — leads the NFL in offensive plays that gain 20 or more yards (56).

3. Drive to succeed

The Steelers’ per-drive offensive numbers are not that impressive. The 27.5 average yards gained per possession ranks 27th among the NFL’s 32 teams. Only three teams hold the ball less — the average Steelers drive lasts 2 minutes and 37 seconds. Forty-one percent of Steelers’ drives have ended without at least one first down — that’s the highest (worst) such rate in the league.

The Steelers, however, are roughly league average when it comes to something more important: scoring on the possessions they have. The rate of drives that end in points (40.2%) ranks 15th in the league, as does their rate of average points per drive (2.16).

Only 9.4% of Steelers possessions end via turnover, the 11th-best rate in the league.

4. Something out of nothing

Jaylen Warren has been hit behind the line of scrimmage on more than half his carries this season. According to Next Gen Stats, Warren encounters contact before getting to the line of scrimmage on 51.8% of his rushes — the third-highest rate of any of NFL running back who has at least 75 carries this season.

Warren, though, has turned those carries when he’s so early under siege into positive gains almost three-quarters of the time — his 72.6% rate of turning a negative run into a positive gain is fifth-best among qualifying running backs.

The Bills rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (148.9) and 31st in yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Only one team allows a higher rate (15.2%) of “explosive” runs (10-plus yards). Where this most relates to Warren is that the Bills allow an absurd 4.3 yards after contact per rush — the most by any NFL defense since Next Gen began tracking such things in 2018.