Steelers 4 Downs: All-Aaron Rodgers edition shows he has NFL’s shortest average completions

1. Not deep

Two weeks into the NFL regular season, the evidence suggests the Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t pushing the ball deep down the field in the passing game.

Aaron Rodgers has the league’s lowest average completed air yards at 3.3 per attempt, per the data of NFL Next Gen Stats. That 3.3-yard figure represents how many yards past the line of scrimmage a ball is caught. It, of course, does not take into account yards gained after the catch, a skill in which a good quarterback can aid.

But for context on how shallow of an average figure 3.3 yards is, over the seven full seasons since Next Gen began tracking these numbers in 2018, only one qualifying passer has finished a season with an average completed air yards less than 3.3: that would be New York Jets third-stringer Trevor Siemian (2.6) in 2023.

Even during Ben Roethlisberger’s final two seasons, when the passing game was famously “dink and dunk,” he averaged 4.6 and 4.4 air yards per completion, respectively. Rodgers’ previous career “low” was 4.5, last season for the Jets. This season, the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix is the only other passer at less than 4.0 through two games.

2. … but quick

Rodgers is releasing his passes, on average, 2.64 seconds after the snap (according to Pro Football Focus). Only four quarterbacks who have started both of their respective team’s first two games have let go of it more quickly. Thirty-two of Rodgers’ 63 pass attempts have come in under 2.5 seconds after he takes the snap.

When Rodgers releases his passes that quickly this season, he has a 78.1 completion percentage, 6.3 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, no interceptions and 124.3 passer rating. When he has thrown after 2.5 seconds have elapsed, he has completed 48.4% of his passes with two touchdowns, two interceptions, 7.9 yards per attempt and a 70.0 rating.

3. No more play action?

A significant storyline of Week 1 — Rodgers’ debut as Steelers quarterback — was the heavy deployment of play action. Only three QBs in the league had more play-action dropbacks (12) or completions (eight) that opening weekend. Rodgers accounted for 30% of the NFL’s play-action touchdown passes in Week 1 with three. No other quarterback had more than one.

This past weekend, though, that aspect disappeared. Rodgers had only five play-action dropbacks in the loss to the Seattle Seahawks, completing just 1 of 5 passes for 5 yards.

Last season with the Jets, Rodgers had the eighth most play-action dropbacks in the league (166). During his final season with the Green Bay Packers in 2022, Rodgers had the NFL’s 10^th-most play-action snaps. During his most recent MVP season (2021), Rodgers’ 152 play-action dropbacks ranked 17^th.

4. Behind the sticks

Related to the short completions, quick time to release and short averaged intended air yards (5.7, third-lowest in the league) is that many of Rodgers’ passes have relied on receivers gaining yards after the catch. Next Gen also tracks “air yards to the sticks,” which is the average number of air yards ahead or behind the first-down line on all of a passer’s attempts.

Rodgers’ figure is last in the league at minus-3.6 yards. Only four of the other 29 qualifying passers are even within as much as a full yard of Rodgers. Eight have positive figures, meaning they attempt throws, on average, beyond the first-down line. The Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love, by far, leads the league at 3.3 average yards per attempt past the sticks. That is well ahead of second-place Lamar Jackson (1.1).