Steelers 4 Downs: Analytics might say to go for it, but Mike Tomlin plays it very safe on 4th down

1. Fourth-and-whoa

No team this season has gone for it less often on fourth down than the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have taken only four offensive snaps on fourth down.

That basic stat doesn’t paint half the picture, though, of just how conservative coach Mike Tomlin has been when it comes to forgoing a punt or field-goal attempt during a situation in which the math suggests he should give his offense a crack at gaining a first down.

Three of the four occasions the Steelers have “gone for it” on fourth down this season came in late-game-trailing situations that left a desperate team no choice (three in the Week 2 defeat to the Seattle Seahawks, one during this past Sunday’s loss to the Green Bay Packers).

The only other fourth-down play run by the Steelers offense this season brought its own form of conservatism — on a fourth-and-goal from the Minnesota Vikings’ 3-yard line and the Steelers up by 10 points in the fourth quarter Sept. 28 in Dublin, the Steelers called a running play.

Add it up, and the Steelers have yet to “take a chance” during normal flow-of-game play on a fourth down all season.

Every situation is different, and a one-size-fits-all, always-go-for-it strategy on fourth down is as unwise as never going for it. But this past Sunday’s defeat had many asking why the Steelers were not more aggressive on fourth downs.

Reasonable people can argue if going for it in any given scenario would be wise. But the analysts at Open Source Football devised a formula to measure when and how often each NFL team approaches fourth-down decisions “by the book.” And according to their data, Tomlin in this area is the league’s most conservative coach this season. By far.

Weekly Mike Tomlin check-in pic.twitter.com/mPuMObuFxq

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 28, 2025

The Steelers are the only team in the league to have no fourth-down tries from scrimmage during scenarios in which the numbers say they should go for it (when exclusions are made for obvious “desperate” situations such as those aforementioned; e.g., down by two scores late in the fourth quarter).

Tomlin’s 0% rate of going for it when such a decision would add at least 1.5 percentage points of win probability is well behind the second-most risk-averse coaches (the Los Angels Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh and Dallas Cowboys’ Brian Schottenheimer, each at 40%).

2. Whack a YAC

Headlined by Tucker Kraft’s 130 aggregate yards gained after his seven receptions against the Steelers last week, Green Bay packed on the YAC. They weren’t the first team to do so against the Steelers this season.

According to pro-football-reference.com, Steelers opponents have amassed 988 yards after catches. The Steelers’ average per-game opponent YAC of 141.1 is the second most in the NFL.

That prolific YAC has been why opponents have been able to so successfully counter the Steelers’ pass rush by getting rid of the ball quickly and throwing short. Opposing quarterbacks have an average depth of target of 6.7 yards on throws when facing the Steelers, the second-lowest for any defensive unit in the league.

That the Steelers can rank 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed despite limiting opponents on average to throwing the second-fewest yards downfield is attributable to YAC.

3. Ode to Troy

Troy Fautanu is quietly putting together a laudable first full season as a pro. The Steelers’ 2024 first-round pick missed all but one game of his rookie season but has established himself as the team’s right tackle in 2025.

According to Pro Football Focus, Fautanu ranks ninth among all NFL starting right tackles in pressure rate allowed in pass protection. He has not been charged with a sack all season, and Fautanu has not even been responsible for so much as a hit of quarterback Aaron Rodgers since Week 3. Over the Steelers’ past five games, only eight pressures of Rodgers have been attributed to Fautanu.

4. Comeback kids

Since 2020, no team in the NFL has more victories after trailing at halftime or at the end of the third quarter than the Steelers, who have 18 comeback wins from when down at the half and 17 when down headed into the fourth quarter over that time span.

Shirking the sample size to the past three seasons, no team since the start of the 2023 season has more victories when trailing after the third quarter (six). Only the Los Angeles Rams (10) have more come-from-behind-at-halftime wins since 2023 than the Steelers (nine).

Since 2020, no team has more victories when trailing by 10 or more at halftime than the Steelers with four.