Steelers 4 Downs: Handful of metrics rate Diontae Johnson at/near bottom of NFL WRs

1. Diontae dropping

A major storyline over this past Pittsburgh Steelers offseason was the contract status of Diontae Johnson, and at the crux of the debate over signing him to a lucrative extension was whether Johnson was truly an NFL team’s No. 1 wide receiver.

So far this season, as measured by some metrics, at least, Johnson is performing like anything but. The stats that exhibit this fall all over the spectrum from the simple to the moderately-complex to the most in-depth analytics:

• Among all NFL pass catchers, Johnson is tied for the most interceptions when targeted (five).

• According to Pro Football Focus, targets to Johnson have produced the second-lowest passer rating among all NFL wide receivers when targeted (50.0).

• Footballoutsiders.com’s comprehensive quantitative player-evaluation tool, Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), ranks Johnson as the worst among 147 wide receivers who have caught at least eight passes this season. Johnson’s DYAR of minus-118 represents, by Football Outsiders’ explanation, the value of Johnson’s performance on plays in which he caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

PFF’s grades are more subjective but still not kind to Johnson. They rank Jonson 46^th overall and 47^th in receiving grade among the 49 wide receivers who have been targeted at least 58 times in 2022.

Diontae Johnson on his relative deceased production in recent weeks and speaking with Kenny Pickett about it pic.twitter.com/hlineblTv8

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) November 24, 2022

2. Short and long

No one across the NFL was thrown to, on average, deeper down the field in Week 11 than George Pickens. Next Gen Stats reports Pickens had an average targeted air yards of 19.3 from Kenny Pickett during last week’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Johnson had the third-lowest average targeted air yards last week at 2.7. The next-closest Steelers pass catcher to Pickens in regards to deep targets was less than half as far downfield on average: Pat Freiermuth, a tight end, at 9.5.

For the season, only four qualifying NFL wide receivers or tight ends have a higher average targeted air yards than Pickens’ 14.2.

Could anybody have predicted Pickens' second #NFL touchdown would come not on a fly route, not a contested catch, not a particularly acrobatic play but on a run between the tackles? https://t.co/I2qKWpy4H8

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) November 15, 2022

3. Pat’s stats

But what about Freiermuth? He led all NFL tight ends in catches (eight) and targets (11) and had the third-most receiving yards (79) during last weekend’s games. For the season (despite missing a week because of injury), Freiermuth is tied for fifth among tight ends in targets (66), ranks sixth in catches (44) and fifth in receiving yards (482).

Notably, after pledging over the offseason to improve upon his yards per catch average, Freiermuth’s 11.0 number in that area in 2022 ranks among the top half NFL tight ends. Freiermuth was at 8.2 yards per catch last season, third-lowest among 44 tight ends who had at least 32 targets.

Freiermuth’s 1.76 yards per route run (as calculated by PFF) leads all Steelers pass-catchers this season, well ahead of runner-up Pickens’ 1.20.

Muuuuuuuuth ???? @pat_fry5

???? Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/E0NYNURgPa pic.twitter.com/aGRUdURv9I

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 13, 2022

4. Rare record

At 3-7, the Steelers have never had this poor a record during the 16-year Mike Tomlin tenure. The most recent time they sat at 3-7 after 10 games — 2003 — was the only occasion during which a Bill Cowher-coached team won fewer than four of its first 10 games over his 15 years at the helm.

Chuck Noll began his Steelers coaching career with a 1-13 record in 1969. But over the final 22 seasons of his tenure, the Steelers were 3-7 (or worse) through 10 games only twice: in 1986 and 1988.

Put together, this is just the fourth time over the past 53 seasons the Steelers, through 10 games, were 3-7 or worse. For perspective, consider for example that the New York Giants started 3-7 or worse four times over the past four full seasons.

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