Steelers 4 Downs: Is turnover luck really mere ‘luck?’ Or are the Steelers just good at it?

1. Make your own luck

The operative word surrounding much of the narrative regarding last week’s Pittsburgh Steelers victory was “unsustainable.”

The Steelers beat the Patriots — despite a significant deficit in total yards — because they forced five turnovers and were plus-four in turnover margin. Especially because four of the takeaways were fumbles (and all four New England fumbles were recovered by the Steelers), the thinking is it’s an unreliable method for winning week after week.

And while there is some truth to that — particularly as it pertains to fumble- recovery rate — the Steelers have been doing this takeaway-dependent thing long enough that it’s no longer just a coincidence.

Turnover luck? It’s not luck once it goes on over a sample size of four seasons.

As Sharp Football Analysis points out, the Steelers’ plus-36 turnover differential since the start of the 2022 season is tops in the NFL over that span.

By far.

Only two other teams in the league have a “plus” turnover rate even more than half as good. The Detroit Lions, at plus-18, rank fourth in turnover margin over the past four seasons. Only the Buffalo Bills (plus-29) and Baltimore Ravens (plus-22) are even within shouting distance of the Steelers in turnover rate since 2022.

2. Yards deficit

Over the first three weeks of this season, the Steelers’ plus-5 turnover differential is tied for the league lead. They are second in takeaways with eight and tied for the lead league in fumble recoveries with five. (The Steelers are one of 11 teams that have not lost a fumble offensively).

There is no question the turnover rate played a massive role in the win at New England (total yardage was 369-203, Patriots). The phenomenon, on whole, is why the Steelers have a winning record through two weeks.

Their minus-417 in net yardage (what they gain versus what they allow) is tied for second-worst in the NFL. The Steelers rank 30th in total offense and 28th in total defense.

3. Average salaries

NFL salary-cap resource Spotrac.com this week compiled its average salaries by position for the season. It should come as no surprise that quarterback ($13.9 million in average annual salary overall; $30.3 million for starters) heads the list, and of little surprise that offensive tackle ($6.8 million/$13.5 million) and edge defender ($6.5 million/$13.5 million) are next in line.

Notable near the bottom of the positional list is that it is composed of (mostly) what you’d expect: the specialists and fullbacks (14 fullbacks over the league’s 32 team rosters average $2.3 million in average annual salary).

But how about that running back ranks below kicker?

It comes with an asterisk in that every team (generally) only has one kicker, whereas each team carries three or four running backs. So, the average “starting” running back ($7 million) still out-earns the average kicker ($3.1 million). But when accounting for all running backs on NFL rosters, kickers make more than the $3 million on average that running backs make.

4. Better protected?

After Aaron Rodgers was sacked seven times over the first two games of the season, during Week 3’s win at New England he made it through a full game without being sacked for the first time in almost three years. It was 26 Rodgers starts ago — a Dec. 4, 2022, game at the Chicago Bears — that he had made it through a game that clean.

While that in part can be attributable to myriad factors — one sack was negated by penalty, Rodgers is throwing the ball so quickly after the snap, he had only 24 dropbacks, etc. — the analytics also report the Steelers offensive line was better against the Patriots than it was over the first two games.

According to Next Gen Stats, no Steelers offensive lineman allowed more than one pressure during the game at Gillette Stadium. Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, had a similar view: it charged Broderick Jones for two hits on Rodgers and, like Next Gen, attributed just one pressure to each of the other four Steelers linemen.