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Steelers 4 Downs: Kenny Pickett holds onto the ball and other data mined from college career

Chris Adamski
| Saturday, October 8, 2022 6:58 p.m.
AP
Kenny Pickett during his NFL debut for the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday at Acrisure Stadium. As Pickett preps for his first career pro start this Sunday at the Buffalo Bills, his performance in college provide clues to how he can perform in the NFL.

1. Quick-draw Kenny

Over the past two years, Ben Roethlisberger had by far the shortest average time of snap-to-throw of any NFL quarterback. Could the Pittsburgh Steelers about to be embarking on a major shift in that area? Judging by the college career of newly named starting quarterback Kenny Pickett, it appears so.

According to Pro Football Focus, Pickett had the second-longest time to throw of any college quarterback in the country last season. Pickett’s 3.19 seconds in that area for Pitt in 2021 is more than 50% longer than Roethlisberger averaged over the last two seasons before he retired.

Incidentally, as you might expect for a quarterback who was a Heisman Trophy finalist, Pickett was rated quite highly by PFF among his peers in college football last season. Pickett was tied with Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud as the best-graded quarterback in PFF’s subjective grades, and he was graded as the second-best in passing.

Pickett was tied for ninth nationally in yards per attempt, he had the fourth-best adjusted completion percentage, the fifth-best passer rating (NFL style rating) and he was tied for best yards per attempt when “kept clean” (not under pressure).

Pitt coaches aren't surprised by Kenny Pickett's fast rise to the Steelers' QB1 https://t.co/Kol0hbYPWy

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) October 5, 2022

2. No stacking the box

Conventional wisdom might suggest that, with the Steelers’ quarterback situation, opponents might want to “stack the box” with defenders so that the running game doesn’t hurt them. But if last week is any indication, that isn’t the case.

According to Next Gen Stats, Steelers No. 1 running back Najee Harris was one of only five running backs across the NFL in Week 4 who did not face one snap in which the opponent had eight men in the box.

Harris had season highs in carries (18) and yards (74) in the loss to the New York Jets.

Harris entered Week 4:

-2nd-worst in Rush Yards Over Expected(by @NextGenStats)-19th (of 28) graded RBs-24th in yrds after contract-3rd-fewest forced missed tackles-2nd-lowest long run(by @PFF) -22nd or 24th in @fboutsiders most comprehensive statshttps://t.co/RxnXRUdzIa

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) September 30, 2022

3. No YAC

The Steelers rank 28th in the 32-team NFL in passing yards per game (181.5). Looking at at least one number, they could rank better if they were getting more yards after the catch.

According to Next Gen Stats, two of the Steelers’ three wide receivers who have at least one catch this season (yes, they only have three of those through four games) are near the bottom of the league in average yards after the catch. Diontae Johnson has the worst average YAC of any qualifying pass catcher (0.8), and Chase Claypool was the third-worst at 1.2.

By comparison, George Pickens’ average YAC of 2.8 looks good — but it’s in the bottom half of the league. And remember, this is all pass catchers, not just wide receivers, meaning all the league’s tight ends and running backs have been better after the catch than Johnson and Claypool.

If there’s a silver lining to the YAC stats, it’s that Pickens makes up for a relative lack of production after the catch by having his catches cover so many yards before it. The average intended pass to Pickens is 16.9 “air yards” down the field, the fourth-highest of any receiver in the league.

"It’s our job as receivers to go out there and make the quarterback look good."https://t.co/zSxuLAq7Tt

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) October 8, 2022

4. Routes run

ESPN published an interesting, thorough evaluation of the most (and least) efficient routes run by pass catchers in the NFL. Its concluded the deep cross (described as “in-breaking route with the receiver working across the field at a steep angle”) is the best route for offenses (average of 3.2 yards per route run). The “go” route (also known as a “fly,” or deep throw to a receiver on a straight, vertical release) is the least efficient at 0.9 yards per route run.

The data set collected over the past two season revealed a pair of Steelers in their superlatives. Claypool has been the best in the NFL in go routes (105 receiving yards on 47 routes run). Tight end Pat Freiermuth, though, has been the worst among all NFL pass catchers when running the “leak” route (the receiver releasing flat to the line of scrimmage before pressing vertically up the field on the opposite side of the formation). Freiermuth has gained negative-0.1 yards per leak route run.

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