Steelers 4 Downs: Mitch Trubisky shows worth by being among NFL’s best QBs in Week 15

1. Mighty Mitch

Seemingly all but forgotten until two weeks ago, Mitch Trubisky has remained on the Pittsburgh Steelers roster. More telling, Trubisky remains under contract for next season.

And Trubisky’s performance during his first (and perhaps only) full game played since September has reignited the case he should remain as a high-level backup to Kenny Pickett next season.

Trubisky’s raw stat line was pedestrian during the 24-16 win at the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday: 17 for 22, 179 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions.

The advanced analytics were better:

• The NFL’s own Next Gen Stats evaluated Trubisky with the highest completion percentage above expected (plus-14.4%) among all quarterbacks who played in games last weekend.

• ESPN’s Total QBR is most mainstream of the comprehensive quantitative metrics for quarterback evaluation. And would you believe Trubisky had the second-best QBR of any of the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks in Week 15? Only Kansas City Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes (92.3) had a better QBR than Trubisky’s 83.5, which was his best over a full game since the 2018 regular-season finale while he was playing for the Chicago Bears.

• Similarly, Trubisky’s performance against the Panthers earned him his highest grade from Pro Football Focus for any game he’s played since 2018.

In 55 career starts, in only four had Trubisky posted a better QBR or PFF grade than he did last week.

Neither Total QBR nor PFF grades are perfect (the latter even carries some subjectivity), but for further perspective of how good Trubisky rated in that game consider that in no starts this season has Pickett had a better QBR and only once (Nov. 28 in Indianapolis) has he had a better PFF grade.

More eyebrow-raising is that retired future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger did not have a start over his final three seasons in which he had a better QBR than Trubisky did last week. The last time Roethlisberger topped Trubisky’s Dec. 18 PFF grade was during the 2020 season-opening win at the New York Giants.

In the latest "Unfiltered," @MarkMaddenX and @TimBenzPGH ponder whether Mitch Trubisky has been the #Steelers best QB this season.

Watch the full episode here: https://t.co/vAr2WwVR58 pic.twitter.com/IApIVGZzsI

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) December 19, 2022

2. Really running

Perhaps part of what allowed Trubisky to excel last week was that the Panthers dared him to do it. Carolina’s defensive gameplan clearly was to stop the Steelers’ running game. No team in the NFL faced more eight-man boxes (eight or more defenders near the line of scrimmage) than the Steelers did last week. No running backs faced more than the Steelers’ Jaylen Warren (72.7% of his snaps) or Najee Harris (50% of his snaps).

The duo did their job, though, combining for 16 “rush yards over expected” (RYOE) against the Panthers. RYOE is a Next Gen Stats metric.

Najee Harris is awesome pic.twitter.com/w3ONLXJg5o

— Bussin' With The Boys ???? (@BussinWTB) December 18, 2022

3. Much-targeted

When he’s being asked to beat his man one-on-one, Diontae Johnson has the trust of Steelers quarterbacks.

The Steelers’ highest-paid and longest-tenured receiver is also by far their most targeted — and that goes for almost the entire league, at least when Johnson is facing man coverage.

Pro Football Focus and TruMedia compiled NFL receivers’ stats when facing “Cover 0” or “Cover 1” defenses. In layman’s terms, the former is man-to-man on opposing receivers with no “help,” and the latter is man-to-man with one safety in the middle of the field responsible for supplementing coverage to all areas.

Of qualifying NFL wide receivers, Johnson is thrown to at the second-highest rate — more than one-third of the times he’s running a route against Cover 0 or Cover 1. The Detroit Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown is the lone receiver thrown to at a higher rate than Johnson.

The 10 catches were the second most in a game for Johnson over his four NFL seasons, surpassed only by a 12-catch game against Jacksonville in 2020.#PITvsCAR https://t.co/WKdg8Cq1Ve

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) December 19, 2022

4. Man-ing up

Johnson might therefore be thrown to frequently during Saturday night’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders, at least if this other nugget from Next Gen portends a trends that continues: The Raiders play man defense at a rate (39.3%) that is sixth-most among all NFL teams.

But will the Steelers have success if they throw to Johnson on Saturday? At least two numbers aren’t encouraging. One is that Pickett rates 35th among 44 qualifying passers in Next Gen passing score when throwing versus man coverage. Another is that Las Vegas’ shutdown cornerback, Rock Ya-Sin, has induced the third-lowest passer rating (45.0) among all NFL cornerbacks when targeted while in man coverage.

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