Steelers 4 Downs: Steelers' drives end in punts more often than any other NFL team

1. Simply put

There are plenty of advanced analytics or comprehensive analyses to illustrate the struggles of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense so far this season. But how about the most simplistic and mundane statistics? Through four weeks, for example, the Steelers have scored the third-fewest offensive points (48), are tied for the sixth-­fewest yards per play (4.6) and have the eighth-fewest total yards gained.

Then there is this data compiled by Open Source Football that isn’t as widely circulated but also — at its core — quite basic. The Steelers have the NFL’s highest rate of possessions that result in a punt (26%) and the league’s lowest rate of possessions that feature a touchdown or first down (55%).

For comparison, the league’s best offense — the San Francisco 49ers — have punted on 9% of their drives and have a TD or first down on 82% of them.

2. Box-ing them in

According to data from NFL Next Gen Stats, the Steelers’ troubles in stopping opponents’ rushing attacks has not been because of lack of emphasis. The Steelers rank 28th in the NFL in yards per carry against — and this is despite a tendency to “stack the box” against opposing running backs.

The Houston Texans’ Dameon Pierce was the latest back to accumulate yards on the Steelers, rushing for 81 during last Sunday’s blowout Houston win. Pierce did so while facing eight men in the box at a higher rate (54.17%) than all but one NFL running back (the Carolina Panthers’ Cuba Hubbard) last week.

It was the latest in a trend of heavy-box looks that opposing running backs saw while running up sizable yardage totals against the Steelers. The 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey saw eight Steelers in the box on a league-high 68.18% of his snaps in Week 1 and led the NFL in rushing yards that week (152),

Before suffering a severe knee injury against the Steelers in Week 2, the Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb was averaging 6.4 yards per carry despite a eight-men-in-the-box rate of 30% that ranked tied for fourth-most in the NFL that week.

The Steelers’ Week 3 opponent RB1, the Las Vegas Raiders’ Josh Jacobs, saw the Steelers put eight men in the box at the eighth-highest rate of 29 qualifying backs that weekend.

3. Blame Canada

Sharp Football Analytics this week published a piece on Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada that was such a takedown that some of its many scathing observations will be relayed without further comment or context:

• Considering NFL teams averaged 22.4 points per game over the three-year span that Canada has served in his role, it is worth noting the Steelers are 1-15 in that time when they score more than 22 points and 19-3-1 when they score 22 or fewer. Sharp surmises this proves the Steelers are completely reliant on defense to win.

• During the Canada tenure, the Steelers rank 28th in the NFL in points, 26th in yards and 26th in the advanced, all-­encompassing metric “expected points added.”

• Since Canada took over, during the first quarter of games — a period Sharp posits as most reflective of a coordinator’s impact, because early snaps are typically scripted — the Steelers have the second-fewest points and second-fewest yards.

• This season, the Steelers’ 58% rate of drives that end in a three-and-out is worst in the league and far outpaces the NFL average of 34%.

4. Dead red zone

While the Steelers have struggled to even get to the red zone, their next opponent has been quite adept when it runs plays there. The Baltimore Ravens have converted such opportunities into touchdowns at a higher rate than any team (80%) through four weeks, tying with the 49ers for the most rushing touchdowns of 20 or fewer yards with eight.

The Ravens have the NFL’s lowest rate of red-zone snaps that gain 0 or negative yards (21.9) and the league’s best red-zone third-down conversion rate (77.8%) and completion percentage (83.3%). They dominate in “expected points added per play” on red zone snaps — their 0.44 EPA dwarfing No. 2 New England’s 0.31.

As a bonus, the Ravens led the NFL in defensive yards allowed per play in the red zone (1.2) and are third in opponent TD efficiency (30.0%).

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