Steelers 4 Downs: Typically, the AFC North gets multiple playoff teams. Not likely in 2025

1. One, and done?

With the two teams that are tied for first place in the AFC North sitting at 6-6 — and therefore on the outside looking in on the current conference’s wild-card picture — it would seem unlikely that the division will have multiple qualifiers for the playoffs this season.

If things play out that way, it’ll be a rarity.

The most recent time the AFC North failed to get at least two teams into the NFL postseason was 2019. Over the five years since, twice there were three playoff teams from the division.

Since the NFL introduced a third wild card in each conference for the 2020 season, that means 2025 is highly likely to be the first occasion in which at least half the AFC North didn’t make the postseason tournament.

But if a top-seven conference team is playoff-worthy, consider that in 2019 the Steelers at 8-8 were the AFC’s No. 7 seed. Same with a 9-6-1 Steelers outfit the year before and a 9-7 Ravens squad in 2017.

That means it’s been since 2016 since the AFC North failed to have at least two of the top seven teams in the conference standings. Barring a late surge by both the Steelers and Ravens (difficult because they play each other twice) over the final five weeks of the season — coupled with the collapse of multiple wild-card contenders such as Indianapolis, the Los Angeles Chargers and others — 2025 will join 2016 as the lone seasons since Mike Tomlin became coach in 2007 that the AFC North did not place multiple teams among the top seven of the AFC.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, four times in that span, three of the top seven were from the Steelers’ division.

2. Rare meeting

There is a strong correlation between finishing with a winning record and finishing among the top seven of a 16-team conference, and the Steelers and Ravens have been the standard-bearers of the AFC North since its inception in 2002.

With those two facts in mind, it should come as no surprise that the Steelers and Ravens most often not only finish with winning records but that their meetings by extension feature teams that are regularly over .500.

That’s what makes Sunday so rare: at 6-6, technically, neither team is over .500.

This is the 30th season of Ravens-Steelers matchups — and if you throw out season openers (in 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2011 when, of course, both teams were 0-0) — Sunday is just the fifth meeting in which at least one team did not have a winning record:

• The most recent time was Oct 6, 2019, when Baltimore was 2-2 and the Steelers 1-3.

• Similarly in Week 7 of 2002, both teams were 3-3 when they played in Baltimore.

• In 1999, the division was still called the AFC Central and it included the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Neither the Steelers nor Ravens made the playoffs, and their Week 14 game was a matchup of 5-7 teams.

• Most prominently and most relevant to a late-season game Sunday, on Thanksgiving night 2013 the Steelers and Ravens played with both teams entering with identical 5-6 records. Baltimore won 22-20, but most memorable was that that was the infamous Mike Tomlin Trip On A Kickoff Return Game.

3. Not ranked high

The Steelers have had well-documented troubles in receiving production this season. ESPN’s analytics department corroborates their issues.

The outlet assigns “Receiver Scores” to every qualifying wide receiver and tight end in the NFL, coming up with an overall score based off of three categories: getting open, catching the ball, and yards after catch (YAC) abilities.

Among the 120 ranked, the highest-ranked Steeler is receiver DK Metcalf at 53rd. Tight end Darnell Washington ranks 68th, receiver Calvin Austin III 98th and tight end Jonnu Smith seventh from the bottom at 113th.

The Steelers are best at YAC. Washington ranked sixth in YAC, Metcalf 14th, Austin 34th and Smith 82nd.

Metcalf is best among Steelers eligible receivers at getting open — he ranks 64th in the NFL.

4. Chips amid the dip

T.J. Watt’s sack production is well down this season. But in at least one realm, he is getting more attention by far than any pass-rusher in the NFL.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Watt has faced a “chip” block (a tight end or running back engaging him momentarily before going out on a route) on 122 of his pass rushes this season. That leads the league by a wide margin; No. 2 is Aidan Hutchinson has been chipped just 89 times.