1. It’s raining man

Asked by a reporter earlier this week if he expected the Baltimore Ravens to deploy man-to-man coverage against his team during Sunday’s regular-season finale, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin III said, “I pray they do.”

After the Steelers’ explosive effort in the passing game during the teams’ meeting last month in Baltimore, it’s little wonder why Austin is hopeful. Though the Steelers entered that Dec. 7 meeting struggling in the passing game, on their first play from scrimmage Aaron Rodgers identified a one-on-one matchup against DK Metcalf, and the two connected for a 52-yard reception. On four occasions, a catch by Metcalf or Austin netted 28 or more yards.

Afterward, Steelers offensive players expressed surprise that Baltimore was so willing to “man up” on the Steelers. But that tends to be what the Ravens do. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, only six teams deploy man coverage more often this season (33.6% of opponent dropbacks). The Ravens, though, allow the fifth-most yards per play in the NFL when in man (6.4).

Rodgers was terrific throwing against man during that Dec. 7 game, completing 8 of 14 passes for 165 yards (his most in any game this season against man) and a touchdown. But that was an outlier. The only other game this season Rodgers even topped 100 passing yards against man coverage was a Week 6 win against the Cleveland Browns (104 yards).

2. Too many man on the field

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Steelers defense has played man coverage more than all but four teams this season (on 36.8% of opponent dropbacks). Like Baltimore, the numbers suggest that isn’t necessarily wise: only seven teams have allowed more yards per attempt (6.9) when in man-to-man, and only three teams have allowed more such touchdowns (19).

3. Mr. Everywhere

The Steelers have benefited from the versatility of former All-Pro defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who per Pro Football Focus data has lined up 393 times at deep safety, 334 snaps as the slot/nickel, 157 snaps at outside cornerback, 152 snaps as an in-the-box (strong) safety and 18 snaps blitzing from the line of scrimmage.

The Ravens, though, have an even more versatile (and younger) version of Ramsey. Kyle Hamilton, like Ramsey, is a player whom opposing quarterbacks try to identify and monitor. Listed on rosters as a safety, during only 51% of his snaps this season has Hamilton been at either free (16%) or strong (35%) safety; 22% of his deployment has come in the slot/nickel and 2.4% as a wide cornerback.

But what is fascinating is that for more than one-sixth of his snaps (more than even free safety), Hamilton lines up on the “defensive line.” At 220 pounds, it’s not as a “defensive tackle,” of course, but during passing plays Hamilton moreso is used as a blitzer.

PFF charts 67 pass-rush opportunities for Hamilton this season. For his career, Next Gen credits Hamilton with the second-best pressure rate of opposing QBs of any player in the NFL since he entered the league in 2022 (min. 150 pass rushes) at 27.6%.

4. Championship Sunday

The AFC North championship, of course, is on the line Sunday. The Steelers haven’t claimed the division since 2020. Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, this is the second-longest span the Steelers have gone without winning a division title — only in a seven-year stretch from 1985-91 (the final seasons of the Chuck Noll era) have the Steelers gone longer without the “hats and T-shirts” associated with a division crown.

Still, no team has won more division titles since the merger than the Steelers’ 25 over that 55-season span.

A win Sunday would not be unusual in that the Steelers are 20-5 in regular- season finales since 2000. That includes an 11-1 record in the final game of a regular season at the facility now known as Acrisure Stadium. Ten of those 11 wins have come against divisional opponents.

Also, the Steelers have won four out of their past five at home against the Ravens.

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