Steelers again try to buck long odds, earn improbable playoff berth

The odds of the Pittsburgh Steelers making the playoffs a month ago were so infinitesimal that the sportsbooks would have laughed off such a wager.

A loss to the Baltimore Ravens had dropped the Steelers’ record to 5-8 and left no margin for error. The Steelers needed to win their remaining four games and have about a dozen other scenarios unfold elsewhere so they could leapfrog six teams and earn the final playoff spot in the AFC.

Still, quarterback Mitch Trubisky remained undeterred. “There’s always hope,” he said after the loss to the Ravens.

It’s safe to say hope exists in greater abundance heading into the final weekend of the NFL regular season. Thanks to three consecutive wins and every necessary domino falling into place, the Steelers have increased their odds of reaching the postseason from 0.2% to 15%.

All it takes is a win over Cleveland and losses by Miami and New England for the Steelers to cap one of the most remarkable comebacks to reach the postseason in NFL history.

Entering this season, 186 teams in the Super Bowl era had started a season with a 2-6 record. Only the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals and 2020 Washington Commanders rallied back to make the playoffs. The Steelers can be the third, although Jacksonville and Detroit also can accomplish the feat after each started 2-6.

“I don’t know if there was any doubt,” said rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, who led last-minute touchdown drives during the past two weeks against Las Vegas and Baltimore to keep playoff aspirations intact. “We rallied together. … We believe in each other and believe in what we’re doing. Now we’re sitting in a spot where we can make something happen.”

For the Steelers to advance, they need the Miami Dolphins, who will start a third-string quarterback Sunday, to complete a stunning collapse with a loss to the New York Jets. At one point, the Dolphins were 8-3 and contending for the AFC East title. They enter having lost five consecutive games.

The Steelers also need the Buffalo Bills, taking the field just six days after safety Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field in Cincinnati, to be focused enough to beat the New England Patriots, who can clinch the No. 7 seed with a win.

Oh, and the Steelers need to extend their winning streak to finish 9-8.

“It doesn’t matter if we don’t win our game,” defensive captain Cameron Heyward said. “I don’t really need to look around (at the scoreboard). We need to be locked in on this game because the Cleveland Browns are going to come here and try to beat us.”

The Steelers might not need to do any scoreboard watching. Armed with smartphones, fans will get updates about the Dolphins and Patriots games before the players — and likely not be bashful about expressing their emotions.

“The fans will be the people telling us the score,” outside linebacker T.J. Watt said. “I don’t know if I will have to look at the scoreboard to know what’s going on.”

Precedent exists

If the Steelers need inspiration, all they need to do is look back a year ago. Entering Week 18, they had a 6% chance of reaching the postseason.

The 8-7-1 Steelers needed to win at 8-8 Baltimore and have the 2-14 Jaguars upset the 9-7 Indianapolis Colts. Plus, the night game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders couldn’t end in a tie. The Steelers knocked off the Ravens in overtime at the same time Jacksonville was humiliating Indianapolis. It took a last-second overtime field goal for the Raiders to avoid a tie with the Chargers and send the Steelers off to Kansas City for the wild-card round as the final playoff seed.

“Man, we’ve got our warts,” coach Mike Tomlin said as the Steelers headed to the postseason, “but we’re here.”

It wasn’t the first time under Tomlin’s watch the Steelers overcame long odds to get the last spot in the AFC tournament.

During the 2015 season, the Steelers were 9-6 heading into the new year and a game at 3-12 Cleveland. At the same time, the 7-8 Buffalo Bills were facing the 10-5 New York Jets. The Steelers needed to beat Cleveland and have Buffalo upset the Jets to get the No. 6 seed.

Good news came from each end of Lake Erie. The Steelers pulled away in the second half to finish off the Browns, 28-12. The Jets nearly rallied from a 13-point deficit before the Bills held on for a 22-17 victory.

Getting a helping hand

Bill Cowher and Chuck Noll each had moments when the Steelers got the requisite help on the final weekend to make the playoffs.

In 1993, in his second season as head coach, Cowher put his famed mustache on the line, saying he would shave it if the Steelers beat the Browns but failed to advance. For that to happen, Cowher needed two teams among the Jets, Raiders and Dolphins to lose.

The Steelers held up their end with a 16-9 victory. The Dolphins lost in overtime, but the Raiders won in extra time, putting the Steelers’ playoff hopes into wait-and-watch mode as the Jets played the Houston Oilers in the night game.

The Oilers removed any drama with a 24-0 win that nudged the Steelers into the postseason.

In 1989, the Steelers made the playoffs after a turn of events that Noll called “stranger than fiction.”

The season started 0-2 with losses by a combined margin of 92-10, but the Steelers won four late-season games to take an 8-7 record into their finale. To make the playoffs, the Steelers needed to win at Tampa Bay and get help from three other teams.

The Steelers beat the Bucs. The Raiders and Colts lost, putting the Steelers’ fate in the hands of the Monday night matchup between Minnesota and Cincinnati. A Bengals loss would send the Steelers to the postseason.

The Vikings led 19-0, but the Bengals pulled within 22-21 before a fourth-down touchdown pass sealed the win for Minnesota.

Noll’s Steelers also needed the Bengals to lose the finale in 1977 when both teams sported 8-5 records as the 14-game schedule neared its conclusion. The Steelers won in San Diego, 10-9, while the Bengals, who had won four in a row, lost to the Oilers .

On Sunday, the Steelers have a chance to buck the odds one more time by completing a playoff run that was unthinkable just a few weeks earlier.

“You know the situations. You know the scenarios,” Pickett said. “If you focus on that, you’re not going to be worried about what you have to do and you may slip up there. There’s a tough team that’s coming in with some really great players. That’s got to be the first order of business.

“What happens after that happens.”