Steelers ‘Believe it or Not’: Does the team really want to keep Bud Dupree?

It’s the third installment of our “Steelers Believe It or Not” series in preparation for NFL free agency starting March 18 and the NFL Draft opening April 23.

We’re taking a look at some of the things the Steelers have told us about what they plan to do this offseason and whether we believe them.

Or if we think they are blowing smoke.

During this series, we examine some of the stated plans and goals of head coach Mike Tomlin, general manager Kevin Colbert and owner Art Rooney II.

Most importantly, we decide whether we can expect those things to play out the way they want us to assume.

Over the first two days, we’ve peeled back quotes from all three men insisting that they are “comfortable” with the Steelers backup quarterback situation. And we’ve poured over Colbert’s declaration that Ben Roethlisberger may be better than ever despite his elbow surgery.

So far, we are 0 for 2 when it comes to buying what the team is selling.

Maybe that’ll change in Part 3 as we examine how the team claims it is planning to handle Bud Dupree’s pending free agency.

In 2019, the outside linebacker posted career highs in tackles (68), sacks (11.5), forced fumbles (4), fumble recoveries (2), and passes defended (3).

Quotes from Tomlin, Colbert and Rooney on Bud Dupree

Mike Tomlin (Dec. 31): At Tomlin’s 2019 season-ending news conference on New Year’s Eve, he said, “Make no mistake, Bud Dupree is a priority for us.”

Art Rooney II (Jan. 15): When asked about Tomlin’s quote a few weeks later, Rooney cosigned on that notion.

“I wouldn’t disagree with that,” Rooney said.

“We’d like to have Bud back, no question about it,” he added. “And we’ll do our best to figure out how to make it happen. But we’d like to have him back, and I’ll stay optimistic that we’ll be able to figure out how to make that happen.”

Kevin Colbert (Feb. 25): At the NFL Scouting Combine, Colbert told media members, “We want Bud Dupree to finish his career as a Pittsburgh Steeler.”

Believe it or not?

Believe it.

Why we should believe them?

Lots of reasons.

• The Steelers have always had more faith in Dupree and appreciated his pressures on the quarterback beyond sack totals more than fans and media have. They view the 27-year-old’s career year in 2019 as the culmination of a perceived project-pick that eventually paid off, not a one-year wonder who just flipped a switch on the cusp of free agency.

• They see at least a few more good seasons worth of production in his future. Or at least one, if he is given the estimated $16 million franchise tag in 2020 instead of a long-term contract.

• Dupree has shown to be a good bookend opposite of T.J. Watt at the other outside linebacker position. Those two combined for 26 sacks last year, the best of any duo in the AFC.

• Even if they don’t sign Dupree, it’s not as if the Steelers are going to go out in free agency and throw money around at two or three players. It’s not the team’s model, and they don’t have that kind of cap space even if Dupree walks.

• Most importantly, failing to retain Dupree creates a massive hole in the defense. And given the questions that already exist on offense, next year’s defense will have to be almost every bit as good as the one in 2019. Yes, even if Roethlisberger returns in good form.

There is no cable-ready replacement at outside linebacker on the roster. It’s pretty clear that neither Anthony Chickillo nor Ola Adeniyi is viewed by the organization as potential a starter. It appears the franchise thinks of them as special teams players and backups, at best.

Despite all the needs on offense, losing Dupree would mean that filling the outside linebacker vacancy immediately becomes the No. 1 priority on the offseason “to do” list.

Allowing Dupree to go elsewhere, and assuming the team doesn’t pay another free agent of his caliber as a top-of-the-depth-chart replacement, means the Steelers would have to spend one of their few draft choices on defense. Thus, potentially ignoring tight end, running back, offensive line or wide receiver.

Do they actually believe keeping Dupree can happen?

I think so.

The team’s view of long-term guarantees as opposed to what Dupree’s agents may demand could be a bridge too far to cross after just one good season.

But if they can find a middle ground and make the first-year salary cap number substantially lower than the tag, my guess is Colbert would like to do so.

Although making a multi-year commitment to a player who has had just one solid, “contract drive” season may make the Steelers’ brass gun shy.

They may also be leery given how the LaMarr Woodley’s contract extension didn’t pan out.

But with the projected increase in the salary cap (about $8 million per team to a total of $200 million) and the ability to release some other veteran players, using the franchise tag on Dupree could be an expeditious option.

Clearly, Dupree would prefer a long-term deal. And given the way Le’Veon Bell caused great unrest by balking at the franchise tag — twice — you couldn’t blame the front office if they are hesitant to go down that path again.

But — so far, at least — conversations about Dupree playing under the tag haven’t dredged up the kind of rancor in advance of the decision as in Bell’s case. To this point, Dupree has been fairly diplomatic about the process, even going so far as to say that he’d likely “handle mine a little different than Le’Veon did.”

In other words, at least Dupree isn’t releasing rap singles about how much he needs to be paid per year in a long-term deal like Bell did.

Not yet, anyway.

Another option exists. Tag Dupree. Then trade him to a team that will meet his long-term contract requests. That happened with three high-profile pass-rushers a year ago: Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford and Frank Clark.

That could work. But the return better include a 2020 draft pick within the top 40 and/or a starting-capable player on offense, or else it probably isn’t worthwhile.

Normally, I’d be hesitant to endorse keeping Dupree given that he’s had only one year of success, chasing the free-agency carrot. I’d say save the money and use it on a tight end, then use a high pick on an outside linebacker in an intriguing draft class for the position.

But this offseason is different. Very few draft choices. Minimal cap space. Limited depth at the position.

I vote keep Bud. And I’m betting the Steelers will do just that.

One way or another.