Steelers Four Downs: Early weak schedule strengthens considerably from here

1. Easy go so far

The Pittsburgh Steelers are undefeated through three games, but their opponents are a combined 1-11 so far in 2020. The more advanced metrics support that the Steelers’ schedule has been the easiest thus far in the NFL.

By measure of “net success,” defined as the percent of positive expected points added per play, the aggregate of Steelers’ opponents thus far is the worst of any team’s combined opponents through Week 4. Net success rates the Houston Texans as the NFL’s second-worst team, the Denver Broncos as the sixth-worst and the New York Giants as the eighth-worst. Those three teams also compose the NFL’s worst set of opponents in regards to offense so far this season.

The Steelers, incidentally, rank fourth in the league in the “net success” metric — 16th on offense and third defensively.

Based on down, distance to go and field position, each play has an “expected points added per play.” How much a team performs on each snap better or worse than what is expected defines their “net success.”

The Steelers’ schedule strength picks up considerably: Their next six opponents rank among the top half of the NFL in net success.

With Sunday’s win, the Steelers are starting 3-0 for the 9th time in the franchise’s history.

They went to the Super Bowl in three of those previous seasons.
? pic.twitter.com/G4R9rNYK8F

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) September 29, 2020

2. Blitz early, blitz often

It’s been noted these Steelers like to blitz, and they blitz at a higher rate than any team in the NFL. What is not common knowledge is the when the Steelers are blitzing. The answer is somewhat fascinating.

According to the league’s Next Gen Stats, the Steelers are blitzing on 28% of opponent dropbacks on third and fourth down. That rate is the 11th-lowest in the NFL. So, how do the Steelers lead the league in blitzing overall (49.2% rate of dropbacks)? They are blitzing 60% of the time on first and second downs. That’s a rate NFL.com termed “ridiculous.”

Dating back decades, the blitz has been part of the very fabric of identity of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defenses.https://t.co/lP22ZlGAmh

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) September 26, 2020

3. Three and outta here

The Steelers have scored on 14 offensive possessions this season (nine touchdowns, five field goals). But when they haven’t come away with points, it often has been ugly.

Tossing out kneeldowns to end a half, the Steelers have had 32 drives this season. Thirteen of then have been ugly: The Steelers have gone “three-and-out” (three plays and a punt) 11 times and twice have had a turnover (a fumble and an interception each). Of the five remaining possessions, three featured just one first down and another ended on downs.

The Steelers defense has forced 13 three-and-outs.

On average this season, nine drives per Steelers game (both teams) end in three or fewer plays before the offense loses possession.

Gameday grades by @C_AdamskiTrib: Steelers 24, Giants 14https://t.co/7r0mrY0Emw pic.twitter.com/lBlvUFPzp6

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) December 5, 2016

4. NFC-it to believe it

The Steelers have feasted on NFC opponents in recent decades. Since they opened Heinz Field, no team has a better winning percentage in home interconference games (.803). The Steelers are 30-7-1 since 2001 against NFC teams, including 6-2 against those from the NFC East. Sunday’s opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, lost both regular-season appearances at Heinz Field, in 2004 and ’12.

The Steelers also have the most home wins vs. the NFC of any AFC team (68) since the conferences were formed the wake of the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. Expanding that to all games, the Steelers’ 114-70-1 record against NFC teams is also the best among AFC teams.

Hey, Steelers Nation, get the latest news about the Pittsburgh Steelers here.