Steelers Four Downs: Throwing short on fourth-and-long

1. Third and wrong

A familiar refrain from exasperated Pittsburgh Steelers fans this season has been frustration with short throws on third-and-long. While many times such grievances perhaps aren’t as stark or happen as often as is popularly perceived, in this instance the numbers prove it a valid complaint.

According to Sharp Football Analysis, no team in the NFL throws thrown to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage on third downs with 8 or more yards to go than the Steelers.

And it’s not even close. The Steelers have thrown 24 such (very) short passes on third and long during the 2021 season; no other team has more than 17 — and that is the offensively challenged Houston Texans, who have used a rookie quarterback. Furthermore, Sharp reports the Steelers have just one first-down conversion to show from those 24 throws.

That’s a 4% success rate, below even the poor aggregate NFL rate of 12% when throwing no farther than the line of scrimmage on third and 8 or more.

When the Steelers throw any other pass on third-and-longs — ranging from 1 yard past the line of scrimmage to deep downfield — they get the first down 25.4% of the time. That would rank them among the top 10 of the league in third-and-long conversions.

Steelers end the 1st QTR 0-4 on 3rd down conversions. 3 of those plays were actually completed passes (the other was the run before D. Watt converted a 4thdown run).That's been the #Steelers offense all year. First attempt 6yd short. second att lost yards. third attempt 5yd short

— Tim Benz (@TimBenzPGH) January 4, 2022

2. Always short

Of course, the Steelers’ propensity to throw short extends well beyond third-and-long snaps. It’s been well documented that Ben Roethlisberger has been getting rid of the ball quickly — he leads the league in average time from snap to throw (2.37 seconds) for the second consecutive season, according to Next Gen Stats.

Roethlisberger’s average completed air yards (4.5 beyond the line of scrimmage) and intended air yards (6.6) rank as the second-lowest in the NFL among quarterbacks who have started at least five games.

With Roethlisberger playing all but one game for them this season, the Steelers rank second-to-last in the 32-team NFL in yards per catch (9.6), fifth-to-last in yards per attempt (6.1) and sixth-to-last in net yards per attempt (5.4 — taking into account sacks). Pro-football-reference.com breaks it down a little further with “adjusted” yards and net yards per passing attempt, and although the Steelers rate a little better in them, it’s not by much. They’re 24th in adjusted yards per attempt and 21st in adjusted net yards per attempt.

.@ohthatsNajee22 has touched the ball 366 times this season. He hasn't fumbled once.

That's an NFL record for a rookie ????

????: #PITvsBAL -- Sunday 1pm ET on CBS
????: NFL app pic.twitter.com/17i4JCMdVQ

— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2022

3. Whoa-contact

Aside from recognition for Roethlisberger in what was almost certainly his final home game, the primary takeaway for anyone who watched the Steelers’ most recent game Monday was the “angry” running by Najee Harris. He had every bit the look of a first-round running back in gaining a career-high 188 rushing yards on a career-high 26 carries.

What’s more, Next Gen Stats reports that 181 of those yards from Harris were after contact. That’s the third-most recorded in a game since the league’s statistical arm began tracking such things in 2016.

According to pro-football-reference.com, Harris is second in the NFL in yards after contact for the season (656) and broken tackles (29). Pro Football Focus’ stats say Harris has forced the fourth-most missed tackles in the league (54).

TJ Watt on being named Steelers MVP pic.twitter.com/utxcVFEJ9G

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) January 6, 2022

4. Sack happy

T.J. Watt is on the verge of maybe making history in the regular-season finale Sunday in Baltimore, needing one sack to tie the NFL record for most in a season. He already has broke the “Next Gen” record for best sack rate. Since such things were tracked beginning in 2016, Watt’s 6.1% rate of sacks per pass-rushing snaps is the best for any player in a season.

Interestingly, though, despite the sky-high sack total and that he’s missed the equivalent of 3 1/2 games because of injury, Watt is “only” fourth in pressure rate as calculated by Pro Football Focus and third in pass-rush win rate as measured by ESPN.

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