Super Bowl line trends: How often is a team that covers the spread also the game winner?
BY JIM DERRY | Home Field Sports
There was a time when picking the favorite in the Super Bowl was as close to a sure thing as one could get, as in 16 of the first 21 big games, the team giving the points covered – and often easily covered.
That’s part of the reason why Joe Namath guaranteeing victory for his New York Jets in Super Bowl III in 1969 and then fulfilling his prophecy was such a big deal, just before the AFL merged with the NFL two seasons later.
Hank Stram and the Kansas City Chiefs followed suit the following year in New Orleans in Super Bowl IV, but an underdog covered just once more in the decade, as the Dallas Cowboys lost by four points to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were favored by seven, in Super Bowl X.
So what does that mean for the current day?
Not nearly as much, as the favorite and underdog have each covered three times in the past six games. In all, spreads have been much closer, making it tougher for a favorite to win without covering – and making upsets not that big of a deal. In fact, last year when Cincinnati lost 23-20 to the Rams, they covered the 4-point spread, which was the first time in 13 years the team that won the game did not cover.
More often than not as of late, whoever wins also covers the spread.
Let’s take a look at recent trends – at spreads, totals and final scores – to see if there can be anything we can take advantage of in Super Bowl LVII, as the Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point favorites as of Monday afternoon over the Kansas City Chiefs with the total set at a fairly high 50 (up from 47.5 early last week) at Caesars Sportsbook.
NOTE: Information taken from Sports Betting Dime. Game winner who also covered in bold under spread.
PAST SUPER BOWL LINES, TOTALS, OUTCOMES
| Super Bowl (Year) | Game result | Spread winner | Total |
| LVI (2022) | Rams 23, Bengals 20 | Bengals +4 | Under 48.5 |
| LV (2021) | Bucs 31, Chiefs 9 | Bucs +3 | Under 56.5 |
| LIV (2020) | Chiefs 31, 49ers 21 | Chiefs -1.5 | Under 55.5 |
| LIII (2019) | Patriots 13, Rams 3 | Patriots -2.5 | Under 55.5 |
| LII (2018) | Eagles 41, Patriots 33 | Eagles +4.5 | Over 49 |
| LI (2017) | Patriots 34, Falcons 28 | Patriots -3 | Over 57.5 |
| 50 (2016) | Broncos 24, Panthers 10 | Broncos +4.5 | Under 43 |
| XLIX (2015) | Patriots 28, Seahawks 24 | Patriots +1 | Over 47.5 |
| XLVIII (2014) | Seahawks 43, Broncos 8 | Seahawks +2 | Over 47.5 |
| XLVII (2013) | Ravens 34, 49ers 31 | Ravens +3 | Over 48 |
| XLVI (2012) | Giants 21, Patriots 17 | Giants +2.5 | Under 53 |
| XLV (2011) | Packers 31, Steelers 25 | Packers -3 | Over 45 |
| XLIV (2010) | Saints 31, Colts 17 | Saints +5 | Under 57 |
| XLIII (2009) | Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 | Cardinals +7 | Over 46 |
| XLII (2008) | Giants 17, Patriots 14 | Giants +12 | Under 55 |
| XLI (2007) | Colts 29, Bears 17 | Colts -7 | Under 47 |
| XL (2006) | Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 | Steelers -4 | Under 47 |
| XXXIX (2005) | Patriots 24, Eagles 21 | Eagles +7 | Under 46.5 |
| XXXVIII (2004) | Patriots 32, Panthers 29 | Panthers +7 | Over 37.5 |
| XXXVII (2003) | Bucs 48, Raiders 21 | Bucs +4 | Over 44 |
| XXXVI (2002) | Patriots 20, Rams 17 | Patriots +14 | Under 53 |
| XXXV (2001) | Ravens 34, Giants 7 | Ravens -3 | Over 33 |
| XXXIV (2000) | Rams 23, Titans 16 | PUSH (LAR -7) | Under 45 |
| XXXIII (1999) | Broncos 34, Falcons 19 | Broncos -7.5 | Over 52.5 |
| XXXII (1998) | Broncos 31, Packers 24 | Broncos +11 | Over 49 |
| XXXI (1997) | Packers 35, Patriots 21 | PUSH (GB -14) | Over 49 |
| XXX (1996) | Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 | Steelers +13.5 | Under 51 |
| XXIX (1995) | 49ers 49, Chargers 26 | 49ers -18.5 | Over 53.5 |
| XXVIII (1994) | Cowboys 30, Bills 13 | Cowboys -10.5 | Under 50.5 |
| XXVII (1993) | Cowboys 52, Bills 17 | Cowboys -6.5 | Over 44.5 |
| XXVI (1992) | Washington 37, Bills 24 | Washington -7 | Over 49 |
| XXV (1991) | Giants 20, Bills 19 | Giants +7 | Under 40.5 |
| XXIV (1990) | 49ers 55, Broncos 10 | 49ers -12 | Over 48 |
| XXIII (1989) | 49ers 20, Bengals 16 | Bengals +7 | Under 48 |
| XXII (1988) | Washington 42, Broncos 10 | Washington +3 | Over 47 |
| XXI (1987) | Giants 39, Broncos 20 | Giants -9.5 | Over 40 |
| XX (1986) | Bears 46, Patriots 10 | Bears -10 | Over 37.5 |
| XLIX (1985) | 49ers 38, Dolphins 16 | 49ers -3.5 | Over 53.5 |
| XLVIII (1984) | Raiders 38, Washington 9 | Raiders +3 | Under 48 |
| XLVII (1983) | Washington 27, Dolphins 17 | Washington -3 | Under 48 |
| XLVI (1982) | 49ers 26, Bengals 21 | 49ers -1 | Under 48 |
| XLV (1981) | Raiders 27, Eagles 10 | Raiders +3 | Under 37.5 |
| XIV (1980) | Steelers 31, Rams 19 | Steelers -10.5 | Over 36 |
| XIII (1979) | Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 | Steelers -3.5 | Over 37 |
| XII (1978) | Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 | Cowboys -6 | Under 39 |
| XI (1977) | Raiders 34, Vikings 14 | Raiders -4 | Over 38 |
| X (1976) | Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 | Cowboys +7 | Over 36 |
| IX (1975) | Steelers 16, Vikings 6 | Steelers -3 | Under 33 |
| VIII (1974) | Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 | Dolphins -6.5 | Under 33 |
| VII (1973) | Dolphins 14, Washington 7 | Dolphins -1 | Under 33 |
| VI (1972) | Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 | Cowboys -6 | Under 34 |
| V (1971) | Colts 16, Cowboys 13 | Colts -2.5 | Under 36 |
| IV (1970) | Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 | Chiefs +12 | Under 39 |
| III (1969) | Jets 16, Colts 7 | Jets +18 | Under 40 |
| II (1968) | Packers 33, Raiders 14 | Packers -13.5 | Over 43 |
| I (1967) | Packers 35, Chiefs 10 | Packers -14 | No total |
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