BY JIM DERRY | Home Field Sports

There was a time when picking the favorite in the Super Bowl was as close to a sure thing as one could get, as in 16 of the first 21 big games, the team giving the points covered – and often easily covered.

That’s part of the reason why Joe Namath guaranteeing victory for his New York Jets in Super Bowl III in 1969 and then fulfilling his prophecy was such a big deal, just before the AFL merged with the NFL two seasons later.

Hank Stram and the Kansas City Chiefs followed suit the following year in New Orleans in Super Bowl IV, but an underdog covered just once more in the decade, as the Dallas Cowboys lost by four points to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were favored by seven, in Super Bowl X.

So what does that mean for the current day?

Not nearly as much, as the favorite and underdog have each covered three times in the past six games. In all, spreads have been much closer, making it tougher for a favorite to win without covering – and making upsets not that big of a deal. In fact, last year when Cincinnati lost 23-20 to the Rams, they covered the 4-point spread, which was the first time in 13 years the team that won the game did not cover.

More often than not as of late, whoever wins also covers the spread.

Let’s take a look at recent trends – at spreads, totals and final scores – to see if there can be anything we can take advantage of in Super Bowl LVII, as the Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point favorites as of Monday afternoon over the Kansas City Chiefs with the total set at a fairly high 50 (up from 47.5 early last week) at Caesars Sportsbook.

NOTE: Information taken from Sports Betting Dime. Game winner who also covered in bold under spread.

PAST SUPER BOWL LINES, TOTALS, OUTCOMES

Super Bowl (Year)  Game result  Spread winner Total   LVI (2022) Rams 23, Bengals 20 Bengals +4 Under 48.5   LV (2021) Bucs 31, Chiefs 9 Bucs +3 Under 56.5  LIV (2020) Chiefs 31, 49ers 21  Chiefs -1.5  Under 55.5   LIII (2019) Patriots 13, Rams 3  Patriots -2.5  Under 55.5   LII (2018) Eagles 41, Patriots 33  Eagles +4.5  Over 49   LI (2017) Patriots 34, Falcons 28  Patriots -3  Over 57.5   50 (2016) Broncos 24, Panthers 10  Broncos +4.5  Under 43   XLIX (2015) Patriots 28, Seahawks 24  Patriots +1  Over 47.5   XLVIII (2014) Seahawks 43, Broncos 8  Seahawks +2  Over 47.5   XLVII (2013) Ravens 34, 49ers 31  Ravens +3  Over 48   XLVI (2012) Giants 21, Patriots 17  Giants +2.5  Under 53   XLV (2011) Packers 31, Steelers 25  Packers -3  Over 45   XLIV (2010) Saints 31, Colts 17  Saints +5  Under 57   XLIII (2009) Steelers 27, Cardinals 23  Cardinals +7  Over 46   XLII (2008) Giants 17, Patriots 14  Giants +12  Under 55   XLI (2007) Colts 29, Bears 17  Colts -7  Under 47   XL (2006) Steelers 21, Seahawks 10  Steelers -4  Under 47   XXXIX (2005) Patriots 24, Eagles 21  Eagles +7  Under 46.5   XXXVIII (2004) Patriots 32, Panthers 29  Panthers +7  Over 37.5   XXXVII (2003) Bucs 48, Raiders 21  Bucs +4  Over 44   XXXVI (2002) Patriots 20, Rams 17  Patriots +14  Under 53   XXXV (2001) Ravens 34, Giants 7  Ravens -3  Over 33   XXXIV (2000) Rams 23, Titans 16  PUSH (LAR -7)  Under 45   XXXIII (1999) Broncos 34, Falcons 19  Broncos -7.5  Over 52.5   XXXII (1998) Broncos 31, Packers 24  Broncos +11  Over 49   XXXI (1997) Packers 35, Patriots 21  PUSH (GB -14)  Over 49   XXX (1996) Cowboys 27, Steelers 17  Steelers +13.5  Under 51   XXIX (1995) 49ers 49, Chargers 26  49ers -18.5  Over 53.5   XXVIII (1994) Cowboys 30, Bills 13  Cowboys -10.5  Under 50.5   XXVII (1993) Cowboys 52, Bills 17   Cowboys -6.5  Over 44.5   XXVI (1992) Washington 37, Bills 24  Washington -7  Over 49   XXV (1991) Giants 20, Bills 19  Giants +7  Under 40.5   XXIV (1990) 49ers 55, Broncos 10  49ers -12  Over 48   XXIII (1989) 49ers 20, Bengals 16  Bengals +7  Under 48   XXII (1988) Washington 42, Broncos 10  Washington +3  Over 47   XXI (1987) Giants 39, Broncos 20  Giants -9.5  Over 40   XX (1986) Bears 46, Patriots 10 Bears -10  Over 37.5   XLIX (1985) 49ers 38, Dolphins 16  49ers -3.5  Over 53.5   XLVIII (1984) Raiders 38, Washington 9  Raiders +3  Under 48   XLVII (1983) Washington 27, Dolphins 17  Washington -3  Under 48   XLVI (1982) 49ers 26, Bengals 21  49ers -1  Under 48   XLV (1981) Raiders 27, Eagles 10  Raiders +3  Under 37.5   XIV (1980) Steelers 31, Rams 19  Steelers -10.5  Over 36   XIII (1979) Steelers 35, Cowboys 31  Steelers -3.5  Over 37   XII (1978) Cowboys 27, Broncos 10  Cowboys -6  Under 39   XI (1977) Raiders 34, Vikings 14  Raiders -4  Over 38   X (1976) Steelers 21, Cowboys 17  Cowboys +7  Over 36   IX (1975) Steelers 16, Vikings 6  Steelers -3  Under 33   VIII (1974) Dolphins 24, Vikings 7  Dolphins -6.5  Under 33   VII (1973) Dolphins 14, Washington 7  Dolphins -1  Under 33   VI (1972) Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3  Cowboys -6  Under 34   V (1971) Colts 16, Cowboys 13  Colts -2.5  Under 36   IV (1970) Chiefs 23, Vikings 7  Chiefs +12  Under 39   III (1969) Jets 16, Colts 7  Jets +18  Under 40   II (1968) Packers 33, Raiders 14  Packers -13.5  Over 43   I (1967) Packers 35, Chiefs 10  Packers -14  No total 

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