Tim Benz: 2 factors may provide leverage, negotiating shift for T.J. Watt

Reporting day for Pittsburgh Steelers training camp is exactly one month away. Aaron Rodgers has finally signed to become the team’s starting quarterback.

So the biggest stories hanging in the balance between now and then are:

• Is linebacker T.J. Watt going to sign a contract extension?

• If he doesn’t, will he report and practice? “Hold-in” as he did in 2021? Or hold out entirely as he did from minicamp earlier in June.

A pair of variables may be weighing in Watt’s favor when it comes to leverage: time and the marketplace.

Two other Pro Bowl defensive players are also looking for new deals, Dallas’ Micah Parsons and Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson, who led the NFL in sacks last year with 17.5. Cleveland’s Myles Garrett has already reset the market by getting a four-year contract that averages $40 million per season.

Right now, it feels like a three-way game of chicken between Watt, Hendrickson and Parsons to see which one will sign first, thus allowing one of the other two to sign their contract last — knowing exactly how much to ask for to become the highest paid defensive player in NFL history.

Similarly, the Cowboys, Steelers and Bengals all have to be looking at each other saying, “Are any of us going to pay our guy more than Cleveland just shelled out to the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year?”

After all, just because the Browns may have been willing to commit $160 million ($123.5 million guaranteed), that doesn’t mean any of those three teams have to live up to that bar.

Especially Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, since Watt will turn 31 in October and Hendrickson will do so two months later. Garrett won’t turn 30 until Dec. 29.

But I’m sure Watt and Hendrickson see that differently. Clearly, Parsons will. He’s only 26.

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Expect Watt to use the rising market and the uncertainty of time to his advantage. Watt’s mouthpiece during the contract debate has been his brother, J.J. The retired All-Pro has used his pulpit on the “Pat McAfee Show” to second-guess the Steelers for failing to extend Watt before Garrett reset the high watermark for contracts.

Now, leaving Watt’s final number “TBD” until after Parsons and/or Hendrickson sign could push the total even higher.

So, while we all presumed that Watt was simply obsessed with surpassing Garrett’s total, maybe now it’s more about securing his position as the highest-paid player in the NFL on defense and waiting out Parsons and Hendrickson to see what they sign for first.

Or — and I think this may be the more likely outcome — what if Watt uses the status of Parsons and Hendrickson as a negotiation tactic?

What if Watt’s true goal is to get $40 million and one penny to exceed Garrett’s total, and he uses time as his leverage point?

In other words, ironically, Watt may now be able to float out Garrett’s total as a position of compromise rather than the end goal.

Watt could settle into his brother’s fallback position and say, “Garrett’s number is now a bargain. Sign me to one dollar more than that right now — or we can wait to see what Parsons and/or Hendrickson get. Then I’m going to want one dollar more than that.”

Obviously, the Steelers shouldn’t feel obligated to cave and pay that. Neither should the Bengals. In fact, the Steelers don’t have to do anything. Watt has one year left on his current deal, and they can franchise him after that.

The Cowboys? Eh, that’s a little different, given Parsons’ age.

But if Cincy and Pittsburgh are mentally committed to keeping Hendrickson and Watt no matter what, they may be better served just signing their guy now before the other franchise gets as spend-happy as their AFC North rival in Cleveland.

Listen: Tim Benz and Chris Adamski discuss T.J. Watt’s contract and more during this week’s offseason podcast