Tim Benz: 4 questions to answer before you buy that Steelers J.J. Watt jersey | TribLIVE.com
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Tim Benz: 4 questions to answer before you buy that Steelers J.J. Watt jersey

Tim Benz
| Monday, February 15, 2021 6:01 a.m.
AP
In this Jan. 3, 2021, file photo, Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt looks on before an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans in Houston.

Now that three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt has been released by the Houston Texans, that news has opened the spigot for speculation that he may join the Steelers to play with his brothers, T.J. and Derek.

While such a move would do wonders for social media and local Subway sandwich franchises, I want Steelers fans who are lobbying for such a move to answer the following questions:

• How much is J.J. Watt going to cost?

• What position is he going to play?

• Which veteran on the current roster are you willing to lose as a result of signing him?

• How worthwhile would the signing be when considering his age, health history and productivity?

So let’s take on that task.

Given the NFL’s shrinking salary cap this year, Watt better be willing to sign in Pittsburgh for the veteran minimum or pretty darn close to it. After the retirements of Maurkice Pouncey and Vance McDonald, the Steelers are still on pace to be roughly $30 million over the cap based on a projected league-wide number of $180 million.

Why would Watt do that, if teams with similar status in the AFC such as the Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts may be willing to sign him for a lot more money? Not to mention the New England Patriots or the Green Bay Packers in Watt’s native Wisconsin. Maybe even the Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they lose pass-rushing ace Shaq Barrett in free agency.

Then there is the issue of where Watt would play in the Steelers defense. He was listed at 288 pounds last year. That’s about 20 pounds heavier than Bud Dupree if the goal would be to have him replace Dupree at right outside linebacker, thus creating the Watt brothers bookend so many in “Steeler Nation” seem to crave.

The more natural position in the Steelers defense would be at the end position where highly compensated and effective players Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt already reside.

Keep in mind, Watt is roughly 10-15 pounds lighter than those guys. That may show up in the run game and when you consider those two usually rush up the field inside of the two edge slots in the Steelers sub-package fronts.

One thing I keep seeing on Twitter is, “Just move Tuitt to nose tackle and have J.J. start at left end in front of T.J.”

OK, why would you move the guy with 11 sacks (Tuitt) inside to the nose for Watt, who had only five sacks last year and just three over the last 13 weeks?

Not to mention being part of a Texans defense that was last against the run last season while Watt was on the field for 91.4% of the team’s defensive snaps.

Plus, the Steelers only played a true version of their 3-4 defense 39% of the time anyway, with sub-packages accounting for the other 61%. It’s part of the reason why nose tackle Tyson Alualu — who had a surprisingly effective move to that position last year — is being deemed expendable in free agency. Even though his ability to apply pressure from the nose likely played a part in allowing that base look to stay on the field roughly 8% more often than the last two seasons.

Then there is Watt’s age, 31, and his history of injuries. Granted, he played all 16 games last year. But in the 2016, 2017 and 2019 seasons, he missed a combined 32 contests.

So let’s go back and answer those four questions to figure out how a signing of Watt could actually transpire.

• If he’s willing to sign for the veteran minimum (or darn close to it) just so he could play with his brothers, even though other teams are likely to offer much more.

• If he’s willing to take on a rotational pass-rushing role with Tuitt and Heyward in sub-package situations.

• If the team is willing to lose Alualu and find his replacement along with getting Watt.

Alualu may have left anyway for more money and would now for sure if his snap count as the top sub in pass-rushing situations for Heyward and Tuitt disappears. And if Watt soaks up anything close to Alualu’s $3.62 million last year, that may prevent the team from keeping either Cam Sutton or Mike Hilton.

• If Watt’s snap count decreases and he just concentrates on getting after the passer in short bursts, he may help himself and aid Tuitt and Heyward in the long run by keeping them fresh in games with more quality minutes than what was provided when the likes of Henry Mondeaux, Carlos Davis, Chris Wormley or Isaiah Buggs filled in last year. Again though, now they would need someone who can effectively handle the nose tackle role in the base defense.

In a different year, with fewer needs and more flexibility to address the ones that exist, I could see a case for the signing beyond the “unite the Watt brothers” argument for the sake of fun training camp stories and network pregame show content.

But in a year where the Steelers may need to replace as many as six starters and two key reserves with limited funds and a 24th draft position, contemplating a luxury at defensive end shouldn’t be high on the team’s “to do” list.

Especially when you consider this team led the NFL in sacks, even without Dupree registering one for the last six games due to injury.

But, hey, why let logic stand in the way of jersey sales and Twitter traction?


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