Tim Benz: AFC North has the best chance to produce 3 playoff teams

I saw an interesting question posed by the folks at Pro Football Focus.

The football stats site asked, “Which AFC division, if any, is most likely to send three teams to the playoffs this season?”

Keep in mind, there are seven potential spots this year because of the new wild-card format.

Last year, the South and East sent two teams each. The New England Patriots (12-4) won the East. The Bills (10-6) were the top wild card. The Houston Texans (10-6) were the lowest-seeded division winner out of the South. The Tennessee Titans (9-7) were the second wild-card team and managed to win two road playoff games.

The top two clubs in the AFC — the 14-2 Baltimore Ravens (North) and the 12-4 Kansas City Chiefs (West) — won divisions where they were the only representatives in the bracket.

The Steelers (8-8) were the seventh team last year, which meant the first team out of the mix.

This year, I have a hunch you won’t see an AFC division with three clubs in the postseason.

I’ve got the Ravens, Chiefs, Bills and Titans winning their divisions this year. I think the Steelers will get one of the wild-card slots, along with the Indianapolis Colts. Then maybe New England or the New York Jets out of the East as the seventh team.

But if I had to choose a division that could get three teams into the playoffs, I’d go with the AFC North.

The Ravens are going to be good again. Maybe not 14-2 good. But 11-5 or 12-4 is likely. They’ll win the division.

With Ben Roethlisberger’s return at quarterback and most of the Steelers defense back, I bet the Black and Gold is at least two games better. Put them down for 10-6. That would comfortably get a franchise into a seven-team bracket almost any year.

The Cleveland Browns are the team that makes it interesting. After last year, I won’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to believe the hype surrounding the Browns. They went from chic playoff prospect to 6-10 dumpster fire.

But if those who didn’t believe in Cleveland last year buy their own reasons for pessimism, then the Browns addressed a lot of their issues.

They dumped Freddie Kitchens as the head coach. They got offensive tackle help in the draft (first-rounder Jedrick Wills from Alabama) and free agency (Jack Conklin, Tennessee). Then they strengthened the middle of their defense in the draft at safety, defensive tackle and linebacker with Grant Delpit, Jordan Elliott and Jacob Phillips.

Plus adding the likes of Austin Hooper, Karl Joseph, Andrew Billings and Adrian Clayborn will help.

In other words, the positions of greatest deficit for Cleveland were also the ones most heavily addressed, on top of the coaching change to Kevin Stefanski.

So, if Cleveland has done enough to get to at least .500, that could be enough to sneak in as the last wild-card team at 8-8 or maybe 9-7.

Especially if you are of the belief that the Patriots are going to sink without Tom Brady, and that the Texans are going to drop back after their offseason of subtractions.

I buy both of those theories. And I buy the optimism around the Browns, too. Therefore, for the purposes of this exercise, I say the North is most likely to advance three clubs to the postseason.

Most of you seem to agree. I ran a poll yesterday on Twitter. And 68.4% of respondents — at the time of this posting — voted with the North.

Surprisingly to me, the West was next with 16%, followed by the South at 12.3%, and the East only got 3.2% of the vote.

What’s funny to me is that if — in a vacuum — you ask a Steelers fan, “Will Cleveland be at least two games better this year?” you’ll probably get an eye roll and a response to the effect of “Pfft! C’mon! Yinz know ’dem Brownies ain’t never gonna be good. Every year they underperform, n’at. No better than 6-10!”

Shift the context of the phrasing, though? Make the lights potentially shine brighter on the Steelers by extension — making it sound like they play in the AFC’s deepest division?

Poof! Suddenly the Browns don’t look so bad, right?

I get it. After all, no one in the West jumps out to me as a lock for a playoff spot besides the Chiefs. The Raiders (7-9) hung around for a while last year. The Broncos (7-9) appear to be on the rise. But I’m not blown away by either. And the 5-11 Los Angeles Chargers are a mystery as they move out of the Philip Rivers era.

The South feels like the South always does. The whole division seems like it’ll be between 10-6 and 6-10. Maybe, like last year, a second team sneaks in. But I don’t view the Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars on track to being a third.

The East is where it gets tricky. If I didn’t vote for the North, I probably would’ve voted for the East. Because if the Patriots drop four or five games — which is possible — that’s a lot of division wins to be had for the other three clubs. And even if the Bills improve a little bit and prove to be worthy division champs, I don’t expect them to be much better than 11-5.

In other words, I think with the Patriots’ reign of terror likely over, there are a few more divisional/conference victories to be had this year that could prove big at tiebreaker time for the Jets, Pats or even Dolphins.

One thing is for sure. Woof! It looks like at least one dog team is going to sneak into the playoffs from the AFC with this new format.

Maybe it’ll be from the “Dawg Pound.” Or a certain team closer to home from the same division if the quarterback gets hurt again.