Tim Benz: Bets to make — and avoid — on Super Bowl Sunday

My football betting season was a lot like the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2021 campaign. A lot of ups and downs.

I finished strong the last two weeks. Was scorching hot to start the playoffs. Then wobbled during Championship Weekend.

But what am I going to do? Sit out the Super Bowl on Sunday? C’mon, please! An estimated $7 billion will be wagered on that game. And a few of those dollars will be mine.

Plus, I’ve got to make good and get on the plus side after last year’s title game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I wasn’t terrible, but I wasn’t good either. I won two bets and lost three.

So, here’s to better luck for me and to all of you who may be indulging beyond just watching the game and hoping for Super Bowl squares to go your way.

(All these numbers are courtesy of BetRivers.com as of Thursday night.)

Let’s start with the point spread. I got in on the Cincinnati Bengals at +4.5. It’s down to +4. So long as it stays over a field goal, go with Cincinnati. I’m picking the Bengals to win the game and upset the Los Angeles Rams outright. But I won’t bother with the money line, even though it is paying out at +168.

I’ll take the points if they are being offered.

My general thesis is that the biggest mismatch on the board is the Los Angeles pass rush versus the Bengals pass protection. But I don’t see the Rams getting as many as nine sacks like the Tennessee Titans did against Cincy in the second round of the playoffs. Yet the Bengals still managed to win that game.

How much worse can it get before that deficiency ever costs the Bengals? Well, I’m betting against it for at least one more week.

Plus, if the L.A. pass rush is that dominant, I think the Bengals can run with Joe Mixon if they need him. I also think their defense will force at least two turnovers, and I love kicker Evan McPherson. So, I think the Bengals at least cover and probably win outright.

That said, I do see Joe Burrow running for his life on a few occasions, so a prop bet I like is over 3.5 sacks for the Rams at a payout of minus-118. That’s gone up from where I got it at minus-104. But I’d still play it. That’s not too pricey for me. Anything under 5.5 as a Los Angeles sack total, I like.

To that end, if you are someone who likes the Rams to win, I’d try to hit a home run and bet on a defensive player to win MVP. Aaron Donald may be too popular of a pick. He started at +1600. The payout is down to +1100. That’s not too rewarding for selecting a defensive player. But, if sacks are to be had, Donald may get a bunch of them.

Sacks are an easy stat to measure for a potential defensive MVP. Perhaps the Bengals put so much attention on Donald, other Rams pass rushers have a field day. Like, for instance, Von Miller (who already has a Super Bowl MVP under his belt with the Denver Broncos) is at +3300. And Leonard Floyd, who is at +10,000, had 9.5 sacks in the regular season.

Or, if you have a hunch that Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow may be pressured into an interception or two, Jalen Ramsey is at +8,000.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford (+130) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (+550) are the most logical MVP bets on L.A.’s side. Burrow (+235) and receiver Ja’Marr Chase (+1,700) are the favorites on the Cincinnati side.

As far as the point total goes, I’m leaving that alone. I don’t have a good feel on it. The over-under of 48.5 is at minus-110 in both directions. That seems appropriately placed to me. I feel that if the game goes askew, it’s just as likely to be an offensive horse race as it is to be a defensive slog. So, if you really want to play it, slide the total up to 50 at minus-134 and take the under. I’m laying off, though.

A guy who did make me some money on Championship Weekend was Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. I went with the theory that the Chiefs would throw so much coverage at Chase that Higgins would get loose. He did. To the tune of six catches for 103 yards.

I’m betting the Rams employ a similar approach and Higgins eats again. The price is only minus-109 to get Higgins over 69.5 yards receiving. The payout is +260 if Higgins hits at least 100 yards. Play one of those two numbers.

Want a few other sneaky ones? Burrow can scamper when he needs to escape. At minus-112, the over-under for yardage on the ground by Burrow is merely 11.5 yards. He’ll be under pressure a lot and looking to run. He can hit that total.

Also, McPherson’s point total is posting most places at over-under 7.5 at slight minus odds. I’ve seen it at 6.5.

If you get it at 6.5, jump on it hard. The guy is money every time he kicks. The Bengals may have to settle for a few field goals in this game. Two field goals and one extra point to hit seven, or three field goals to go over 7.5. That’s a smart play.

Let me throw one more at you, just to keep you interested until the end of the game. You can bet on if the last play of the game will be a kneel down. “Yes” is at minus-190. “No” pays you +150. With the way all these NFL playoff games are coming down to field goals at the end or going to overtime, I really like the chances of the game being in doubt until the last snap.

Maybe yet another McPherson field goal walk-off for Cincinnati? I’d love that for many reasons.

So to recap…

• Bengals +4.5

• Rams over 3.5 sacks

• Rams defensive player to win MVP (if you are betting on L.A.)

• Higgins over 69.5 yards receiving (or over 99.5 for more of a payout)

• Burrow over 11.5 rushing yards

• McPherson over 6.5 points

• The last play of the game is not a kneel down

Happy wagering, everyone. Enjoy Super Bowl Sunday. May a chunk of that $7 billion come your way. And go Bengals!

Ick. Did I just write that? Man, gambling puts you in a tough spot sometimes, doesn’t it?

Our fantasy sports analyst — and lifelong Bengals fan — Jeff Erickson previews the Super Bowl in Los Angeles. We talk DFS and prop strategy. Plus we discuss NBA trades and the universal DH.

Listen: Tim Benz and Jeff Erickson preview Super Bowl LVI and fantasy and prop betting strategies