Tim Benz: Confident in the Steelers returning to the playoffs? Let's see how much

Let’s play a little game to gauge your level of confidence in the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers.

As I’ve previously written, I think the Steelers are going to be a noticeably better team in ‘23, even if that doesn’t necessarily lead to a significant boost in their win total. I’m predicting they’ll be 10-7 this year and the last team in the AFC playoffs.

That may not seem like a big jump to you. But the long and the short of it is, I think the Steelers were very fortunate to get to nine wins last year.

Based on the long snapper injury for the Cincinnati Bengals in the season opener and the soft-as-baby-food schedule they played in the second half, the Steelers of 2022 looked like more of a seven-win team that got some good fortune than a team truly worthy of nine wins and being on the playoff bubble.

So I can see the Steelers winning 10 games this year and having that look like a much more significant leap than what the AFC standings may reveal.

However, the standings are what matters. And to the question about confidence in the team, the gambling community seems acutely aware of the schism between the Steelers being better and the Steelers being good enough to make the playoffs.

For instance, BetRivers.com has the Steelers’ over-under win total at 8 1/2 victories. Right now, the cost to bet over 8 ½ is a fairly hefty minus-167 (i.e., to win $100, you have to bet $167 dollars). To bet the under, the payout is plus-130 (i.e., bet $100 to win $130).

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In other words, the bookmakers are buffering themselves for more money coming in from optimistic gamblers thinking the Steelers will for sure win at least nine games this year, as opposed to few people thinking they will regress. After all, they won nine a year ago and the presumption is that the Steelers (especially on offense with quarterback Kenny Pickett entering his second year) will be at least just as good, if not better, in 2023.

I agree. I’m not wild about paying minus-167 to back up my point of view. But I agree that the Steelers should win at least nine games again in 2023 and they’ll probably win at least one more as well.

That mentality isn’t translating to BetRivers’ odds for the Steelers to make the playoffs. Currently, the Steelers are at minus-190 to miss the playoffs and plus-150 to make them. So that’s a tidy, little payout if you want to put your money where your Terrible Towel is, if you think the Steelers will qualify as one of the top seven teams in the AFC and make the postseason.

That’s part of the concern though, isn’t it? We aren’t really talking about the Steelers making one of seven spots. It’s really just one of four. Because, last time I checked, the Steelers aren’t eligible to win the AFC South, East or West divisions.

If that was true, the Steelers would’ve made the playoffs as NFC South champs in 2022, after sweeping their way through Tampa, Carolina, New Orleans and Atlanta.

Let’s do a little analysis on that front. There are 16 teams in the AFC. How many teams are you 100% certain are going to be worse this year than the Steelers this upcoming season?

I can only come up with three. They are all in AFC South — Tennessee, Houston and Indianapolis. None of them had more than seven wins last year. I bet none of them gets more than that this year.

By extension, that would mean the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South. BetRivers has them as meaty minus-167 favorites to do so. I concur. Therefore, we are now talking about 12 teams for six remaining AFC spots.

I’m sure most of you think the Patriots, Raiders and Broncos are certainly going to be worse than the Steelers too. That’s probably true. I’m not totally convinced on any of those fronts. But I’ll play along.

So let’s rule those three teams out of the playoffs for the sake of argument. Now we are down to nine teams battling for six spots.

Aside from the Jaguars, the other three division winners in 2022 were the Kansas City Chiefs in the West, the Cincinnati Bengals in the North and the Buffalo Bills in the East.

You can make a compelling case that all three of those teams may be a game or two worse this season. However, you are not going to convince me that any of those three franchises are going to backslide so much that they can’t at least secure a wild card.

Assuming those three qualify, that takes us down to six teams battling for the three remaining spots — the Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Chargers, Ravens and Browns. Each of those teams has an over-under projection of 9 ½ wins according to BetRivers, all a game higher than the Steelers.

If you want to know why there seems to be such fervent belief that the Steelers are going to be at least as good as last year (9-8, last team eliminated from the playoffs) while maintaining such long odds against them making the playoffs, there you have it.

That’s why.

For as much as you may want to believe the Steelers are going to be an improved product in 2023 (and I think you’re right) that doesn’t get them out of a very dense middle of the pack in the AFC. Nine of the 16 teams in the AFC finished between seven and 10 wins last year. Two of them, the Jets with Aaron Rodgers and the Browns with a full year of Deshaun Watson, should get improved quarterback play.

My point is, if you think the Steelers are a playoff team this year, at plus-150, I’ll walk right up to the gambling window with you. Hey, we are getting plus-money for a reason. The payout is in our favor because the bookmakers seem to think the odds are not.

So go ahead. Throw a few bucks on the Steelers to make the postseason. Just not Taylor Swift ticket type of money.

After all, I still am not ruling out that she may have put on the best show we are going to see at Acrisure Stadium all year.