Tim Benz: ESPN is already hyping the 2021 season ... and overhyping the Steelers

Leading up to Sunday’s Super Bowl, ESPN.com put together some projections for the Steelers and the rest of the league’s 31 other franchises in advance of 2021 season.

Hey, no time like the present to start hyping the future, right?

They placed every team into one of six boxes based on their perception of that organization’s likelihood of contending for Super Bowl LVI.

1. Current contenders

2. On the cusp

3. One year out

4. Two years out

5. Three years out

6. Four or five years out

First of all, let’s note that the only teams in the “current contenders” category were the four Championship Game participants (Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, and Buffalo Bills) from this season.

Secondly, I have no idea what the difference is between “on the cusp” of contention and “one year away” from contention. Feels like the same thing to me. But I digress.

The Steelers were placed in the “one year away” category.

Really? One year away? From what? A Super Bowl?

Or the No. 1 overall pick?

If I created my own ratings category for the Steelers on that piece, I’d rate them “one year away… from being five years away.”

Isn’t that the most probable outcome for the Steelers? That they muddle through one more year of an aging Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, get three new offensive coaches up to speed, endure a roster that will be picked apart in free agency and probably go somewhere between 6-10 and 9-7 (at best).

That’s the way I see it.

When I hear the phrase “one year away,” I think of teams that are on the ascent. Teams that made strides in 2020. That were on the fringes of contention last year, could improve in 2021 and may be among the favorites in 2022.

Optimists about the Cleveland Browns could make that case. If you believe the Tennessee Titans can cobble together a defense over the next two years to match their run-pass balance on offense, they’d qualify, too.

The same for those who believe the Los Angeles Rams did the right thing by trading for quarterback Matt Stafford or those that believe the Baltimore Ravens can develop a pass game to match quarterback Lamar Jackson’s running ability within the next two years.

Those explanations I’d buy. But I have no idea how the Steelers fall into that category.

How can a team that lost five of six games to end the year be characterized as being on an upward trajectory as opposed to a descent? Especially when that team is facing one of the worst salary cap situations in football and an extremely difficult schedule.

Honestly, based on Brooke Pryor’s writeup of the team in the post, it reads like the Steelers should be slotted lower, too. I found her assessment to be more accurate than the ranking itself. It’s almost as if whoever put the list together just predetermined that’s where the Steelers were going to be.

If part of ESPN’s argument is “despite their bad finish, the Steelers still went 12-4,” fine.

But are they honestly still a 12-4 team next year with JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Alejandro Villanueva, Bud Dupree, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Tyson Alualu and Maurkice Pouncey all potentially leaving via free agency or retirement?

Given the shrinking salary cap number, the prospect of keeping more than two or three of those guys is scant. And there is only so much production to soak up that can be expected from last year’s backups and this year’s upcoming draft class.

What the Steelers are truly “one year away” from is a full-fledged rebuild in 2022.

That’s what happens when you get a new quarterback, a big chunk of an offensive line, and maybe (by 2022) two new cornerbacks as well. Plus, a salary cap that hopefully will go back up and some room to spend underneath it.

Oh, and by that point, perhaps an entirely new coaching staff as well, depending on how bad 2021 gets. If I’m right and the Steelers fail to win a playoff game next year, that’ll be five consecutive seasons without a postseason victory. We haven’t seen a drought like that since 1967-71.

It’s possible not even head coach Mike Tomlin will survive that. Nor should he.

I’m sure this commentary will be met with the usual rebuttals from Steelers fans and those in the media who prefer to advance the chosen narrative of the franchise rather than focus on recent history.

Those retorts will sound exactly the same as they did when I was being called too much of a pessimist when things started to turn south after the ugly “Covid Bowl” win and the ensuing loss to Washington.

How’d that work out? Guess I didn’t hit the alarm bells too early there, did I?

In 2018, the Steelers were “just a few plays away.” Last year they were “just one injury to the quarterback away.” Now they are “just one year away.”

Got it. Let’s circle back at the start of 2022 and see if they are just as close to that “four or five years out” camp.

My bet is unless they draft or acquire the next Roethlisberger between now and then, that’s exactly where they will be.