Tim Benz: First quarter grades and a look at calendar produce hazy forecast for Penguins

Every year, hockey outlets love to throw out the stats about how much the season-ending playoff bracket tends to mirror what we see by the time the calendar hits “American Thanksgiving.”

That one was for you, Sportsnet and TSN.Ca.

Last week, former Penguin Mark Recchi penned a piece as a special contributor to NHL.com centering on that point. He wrote that if you “go back to the 2005-06 season, 76.3 percent of the teams that were in a playoff position on U.S. Thanksgiving made the playoffs.”

That’s a 14-season sample size that excludes the 2019-20 season because of how covid-19 impacted the schedule and the bracket. It also didn’t count the 2012-13 and 2020-21 seasons because neither of those seasons started before U.S. Thanksgiving.

NHL Stats research in Recchi’s post claims 171 of the 224 teams that made the postseason over that swath of time were in playoff position on Thanksgiving.

This year the Penguins were not. They were the ninth team in the Eastern Conference with 23 points in 20 games, one slot below the final wild card position. The Tampa Bay Lightning had that spot with 23 points in 19 games.

Then again, after winning their game over the Philadelphia Flyers on Friday, the Penguins were in third place of the Metropolitan Division with 25 points, holding an automatic qualifying spot. They begin play Tuesday night in the second wild-card hole with 25 points.

Manipulate that data around whatever date on the calendar you want. The suggestion is that with only 25% of the season gone, the Penguins have played themselves into a position where they are likely to spend the next three-quarters of the season squarely on the playoff bubble.

If you went back to last year’s Thanksgiving, the top seven teams in the Eastern Conference all made the playoffs. And the Boston Bruins (16 points), who were the 10th team at the time, only trailed the Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets (22 points each) by six points despite playing a conference-low 16 games. They eventually qualified as the top wild-card team with 117 points.

By the end of last year, a 16-point gap occurred between the last qualifier — the Washington Capitals with 100 points — and the New York Islanders with 84.

Don’t count on that happening this year. In theory, a wide “have-and-have-nots” type of gap could stretch out again this season. That began to happen in mid-January a season ago. By Feb. 1, the Bruins were nine points clear of ninth-place Detroit and nothing but playoff slotting changed for the next three months.

This year, though, there appears to be a slow, steady blend among Eastern Conference middle-class clubs. As of Tuesday morning, four teams in the conference — the Devils (38), Bruins (36), Maple Leafs (33) and Islanders (30) — have 30 or more points. The Penguins are one of eight teams in the next cut between 21-27 points.

That’s akin to what we saw at this time in 2021. But the emergence of another Grand Canyon-esque chasm opening up this year appears unlikely.

The Pens are a big part of that.

Winning four of five to start the year. Losing seven in a row. Winning seven of 10. For as “spurty” as this team has been this season, it doesn’t feel like it is capable of running away and hiding from anyone.

That’s why I was a little surprised to see ESPN.com hand out their first-quarter grades and give the Penguins a “B” for the season thus far. For as many points as the Pens have left on the table with blown leads during that losing streak, it feels like that may be a bit generous. I’m more in the B-minus, C-plus range.

Especially since this club that has the oldest roster in hockey. My guess is this Pens team may wheeze its way down the stretch and look back at how much easier life could be in April if it had maximized its point total in October and November while the players were fresh.

One area in which the Pens can definitely improve is getting more third-line production. Brock McGinn has been good (five goals, three assists) this month. But Danton Heinen hasn’t scored since Oct. 22. Jeff Carter has just one goal in November. And — when he plays — Kasperi Kapanen remains a non-factor. He has only one goal in 13 games this season.

In this week’s hockey podcast with Brian Metzer of the Penguins Radio Network, we discuss all these topics, dive into the goaltending and preview Tuesday night’s game with the Carolina Hurricanes.