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Tim Benz: How big is the top AFC seed for the Steelers? Team history shows a mixed bag. | TribLIVE.com
Steelers/NFL

Tim Benz: How big is the top AFC seed for the Steelers? Team history shows a mixed bag.

Tim Benz
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Chaz Palla | Tribune-Review
Mike Tomlin at Super Bowl 43, February 1, 2009 in Raymond James Stadium.

Washington’s victory Monday evening at Heinz Field hurt in ways beyond just ending the Steelers’ unbeaten season.

The struggling offense was further exposed. The defense suffered two more injuries (Joe Haden, Robert Spillane). And the team fell into an 11-1 tie with the Kansas City Chiefs atop the AFC.

Technically, the Steelers still have a lead on K.C. for the top playoff seed in the AFC because their loss occurred against an NFC team whereas Kansas City’s defeat was to the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders.

But if the Steelers should lose to any of their remaining opponents, they’ll be a game back until K.C. loses again. And all four foes remaining on the Steelers’ schedule (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Cleveland) are AFC teams.

So how important is that No. 1 seed to the 2020 Steelers anyway?

In one sense, more important than ever. With a seventh team being added to the AFC and NFC playoff brackets this year, the No. 1 seed is now the only team that gets a bye. Previously, the top two seeds in each conference were given a bye.

In another sense, it’s less important than ever because there will be limited (if any) opposing fans at the games thanks to covid-19 restrictions.

That’s to say nothing of the prospect of adding a “Week 18” if the coronavirus outbreaks get so bad between now and the end of the year that teams end up playing imbalanced schedules. Should that occur, we may see an eighth team added in each conference. Then nobody gets a bye.

The easy answer is to say, “Well, it’s better to have than not.” Yet Steelers history tells a different story.

Of the Steelers’ eight trips to the Super Bowl, only two have come in years when they started the postseason as the top seed in the AFC (1975, 1978).

Aside from those two Super Bowl championships, the Steelers have come up short as the No. 1 seed. Coach Bill Cowher’s teams lost at Three Rivers Stadium in the AFC playoffs twice after being the best team in the conference during the regular season.

That happened in Cowher’s first year when the Steelers fell to Buffalo in their first game of the 1992 postseason. Then they lost a home AFC Championship game in 1994 (San Diego).

That fate was suffered twice more at Heinz Field in 2001 and 2004 when the New England Patriots won a pair of AFC Championship games on the North Shore.

Meanwhile, four times the Steelers got through the conference and to the Super Bowl as the second seed (1979, 1995, 2008, 2010). They got there once (2005) as the sixth seed.

The 1974 Super Bowl IX-winning club (10-3-1) would’ve been the third seed out of four playoff clubs behind the 12-2 Oakland Raiders and the 11-3 Miami Dolphins. But prior to the 1975 season, the home teams in the playoffs were decided based on a yearly rotation, not a seeding format based on record. Hence, the Steelers got to host the wild card Buffalo Bills in the first round while the Dolphins and Raiders had to play each other.

The Steelers then went out to Oakland and won the AFC Championship game before beating the Minnesota Vikings for their first of six Vince Lombardi trophies.

On the surface, it looks like being the top seed in the AFC has been a less-effective road for the Steelers than being the second seed.

Here’s the catch, though. In each of those four seasons that the organization has claimed the AFC crown from the two hole, the top seed has gotten knocked off somewhere else along the way. So the Steelers got to host the AFC Championship on all four of those occasions, beating the Houston Oilers in 1979, the Indianapolis Colts in 1995, the Baltimore Ravens in 2008 and the New York Jets in 2010.

Even in the 1997 AFC Championship Game, when the second-seeded Steelers lost to the fourth-seeded Denver Broncos, Denver upset top-rated Kansas City, 14-10, the week before.

Hence, if the Steelers finish second in the regular-season AFC standings, unless another team upsets the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, coach Mike Tomlin’s team would have to travel there. The Steelers did win road AFC Championship games in 1974 (Oakland) and 2005 (Denver) but lost them in 1976 (Oakland), ‘84 (Miami) and 2016 (New England).

Tomlin has never had a top-seeded team. He’s had some mixed results in the two spot, winning one Super Bowl (2008), losing another (2010) and losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round (2017).

I’m guessing he’d like to give this whole top-seed thing a whirl, regardless of what history may say, don’t you think?

Step one toward that goal is beating the 9-3 Bills on Sunday. And if that doesn’t happen, the conversation may turn toward whether the Steelers can hold off the Bills for the No. 2 seed let alone catching K.C. for the top spot.

Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via X. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.

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