Tim Benz: Mike Tomlin's contract extension with Steelers is a lock, even if the playoffs are not

Whenever the Pittsburgh Steelers play the Buffalo Bills, the connection between Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott is frequently discussed. It goes back to their playing days together at William and Mary, and it’s a time in their lives both men have fondly referenced over the years.

Expect the two W&M grads to be linked again with similar headlines this summer. McDermott just got a contract extension on Friday. It’ll take him through 2027. Tomlin is expected to get one sometime this summer, even though he still has two years remaining on his current deal.

Much was made about Steelers owner Art Rooney II being noncommittal about Tomlin’s future back in January when he said, “I don’t like to speculate on Coach’s contract. … We’ll see.” But, a few days later, he also said to Steelers.com, “I don’t really evaluate Mike on anything other than I’m glad he’s our coach. Hopefully, he’ll be our coach into the future. He gives us a chance to win, year in and year out, and puts us in a position where we have a chance to compete for a championship.”

True. Until the first game of the playoffs anyway.

Since the 2016 AFC Championship Game defeat in New England, the Steelers have failed to win a playoff game and have failed to qualify for the playoffs in three of those six years. In 10 of the past 12 seasons, the Steelers have not registered a playoff win. In five of those years, the Steelers have fallen short of the playoffs.

Yet the presumption that Tomlin is going to get a contract extension is viewed as a lock. Why? Well, because, as you may have heard once or twice, Tomlin has never had a losing a season. And as you have read frequently in this space, that “standard” Tomlin has frequently referenced in recent years seems to have dipped from Super Bowl contention to fringe playoff relevance.

If that’s good enough for Rooney, it’s his team and his money. He can do what he wants with both.

And, let’s be honest, if the Steelers really do come off the rails over the next year or two, Rooney can fire Tomlin whenever he desires. It’s not like Tomlin’s contract counts against the salary cap. Although my guess is, Rooney will probably be the last person left in Pittsburgh who will want to do so, even if the Steelers go 0-34 over the two years.

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In more realistic terms, though, I would hope eventually that results that are just barely good enough — like a batch of 8-8 and 9-8 seasons — wouldn’t seem worthy of a contract extension to Rooney in the first place.

To the national media, they appear to be.

I struggle to think of a coach or player who is perceived so differently on the national and local levels. Around here, Tomlin at one time could do no wrong. But now he is viewed by many as a coach who hasn’t done enough with the talent he has assembled.

Nationally, Tomlin is advanced as a coaching god who deserves credit for getting lousy teams to .500 when they start 0-4 or 2-6 all the time. Of course, that’s conveniently forgetting that he was also the coach on the sideline when the teams got off to the 0-4 or 2-6 starts.

Pfft! Details, details.

I mean, as recently as last week, Pro Football Network ranked all the NFL head coaches. It had Tomlin third behind Andy Reid and Bill Belichick, and just in front of John Harbaugh.

When was that poll conducted? 2008? Belichick, Tomlin and Harbaugh have combined for one playoff win since the end of the 2018 season.

You could argue Tomlin has the third-best career resume among current NFL coaches behind those guys (although Sean Payton and Pete Carroll may want to enter the chat). But not enough of the positives on that resume have been built up over the past 12 years and certainly not over the last six.

Tomlin’s consistent results of having teams with winning records make it difficult to build an argument that he should be fired. But coming up short of a playoff win since 2016 — a record-long post-Immaculate Reception drought for this franchise — makes it hard to build a case that he’s worthy of an extension either.

If it was my money, I probably wouldn’t extend him without some fresh postseason results. But if I had Rooney’s bank account, and extending Tomlin played better on a national level — and within the locker room, maybe I would.

But he’ll get an extension. So don’t be surprised when it happens.

What will be surprising is if the Steelers come up short of the second round of the playoffs for the next few years and Tomlin catches any blame from ownership or anyone at a national outlet for even being part of the reason why.