Tim Benz: NFL Network analysis of Steelers reminds us how thin their margin for success truly is

The NFL Network visited Pittsburgh Steelers training camp this week. And all the usual preseason optimism at Saint Vincent College seems to have filtered back to the studio.

One of the hosts of “Good Morning Football,” Peter Schrager, sang the praises of quarterback Kenny Pickett. Meanwhile, co-host Kyle Brandt was effusive in his praise and resolute in expectations for the 2023 Black and Gold.

“The Steelers are going to be in the playoffs this year. I believe it. I’ll predict it now. I’ll predict it again when we get to prediction time,” Brandt said. “There’s seven spots in the AFC. Seven in one of the best AFCs ever. Maybe the best ever. I think the Steelers will have one. They’re gonna be a surprise conversation team.”

Brandt wasn’t done, as he looked back at how the Steelers narrowly missed the playoffs in 2022 at 9-8.

“The Steelers needed one more game, just one more game, and it was fair and square and they didn’t deserve to make the playoffs. That’s fine. One more game and they’re in and they’re dangerous as (heck). I think they’ll be in this year. I’m a huge believer in the 2023 Steelers. Love ‘em,” Brandt concluded.

The only point of Brandt’s I can’t firmly embrace is the concept of how dangerous they would’ve been last year — or would be this year — if they did manage to qualify for the postseason. I still think they are a cut below the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills.

If they get the fifth seed and visit Jacksonville, then we might be talking about an upset.

But I agree with most everything else Brandt said. In fact, I’ve been advancing similar opinions for months. I have the Steelers at 10-7 and in the playoffs as the AFC’s seventh seed this season.

I’m just a lot less sold on it than Brandt seems to be.

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Also, I think their modest improvement from 9-8 and out of the playoffs to 10-7 and in will be more of a fingernail-biting battle and less of a coronation than what Brandt is making it sound.

There are a few things to remember about Brandt’s impassioned Steelers optimism from a national seat that also seem to be permeating around the Three Rivers.

• I’ve written it before, and I’ll keep doing so until people stop saying it. The Steelers aren’t competing for one of seven playoff spots in the AFC. They are competing for one of only four. They aren’t allowed to win the AFC East, West or South.

We know the North is going to be deep. It’s entirely possible all four teams could have at least eight or nine wins. That will result in some natural attrition within the division. If the East, West or South produce some bottom feeders in third and fourth place, that could mean plenty of teams in the 10-win range that may be slogging it out with the Steelers for those three wild-card spots.

That’s if the Steelers can’t unseat Cincinnati for the AFC North title, something you shouldn’t expect to see happen.

I think it’s fair to assume the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals are all at least wild-card teams this year, if not repeat division winners. I also think it’s safe to say that the three AFC South teams besides Jacksonville won’t get in as a wild card and will only qualify as a division champ if Jacksonville massively disappoints.

So that likely means the Steelers are one of 10 remaining AFC teams vying for four playoff spots and maybe three if you think the Bengals are going to win the North for a third straight year.

Which I do.

• Drop the whole, “they were just one win away” thing from ‘22.

Technically, that’s accurate. And in four of the past six seasons, 10 wins would’ve secured an AFC wild-card spot without tiebreakers. Last year was one of them.

But the Steelers already had a fluky swing game go in their favor in 2022 with how they won at Cincinnati in the opener thanks to the Bengals long snapper injury. Not to mention they beat the Ravens without Lamar Jackson and faced a putrid schedule in the second half along the way to six other victories.

The schedule and the circumstances surrounding Week 1 elevated what probably should’ve only been a seven- to eight-win team into a nine-win club.

So let’s avoid talking ourselves into thinking their record could’ve been better than what it was. They got a lot of help from the football gods to get to nine wins in the first place.

• If the AFC is going to be as good as Brandt is saying, 10 wins may not even be good enough to qualify, especially if the tie breakers don’t go your way.

Hey, it was just two years ago when the Indianapolis Colts finished 2020 at 11-5 and barely qualified as the seventh seed for the 2020 post season.

That’s the only point I’m trying to make. Mainly because I keep having to remind myself of it when I project these Steelers.

It’s very easy to fall into the trap of “Well, T.J. Watt is back healthy, Pickett and George Pickens will be a year more experienced, the defense is more versatile, the offensive line is better, so obviously, the Steelers are going to be vastly improved!”

Yeah. They might be. If all that good stuff is proven true and nothing unforeseen goes bad. But how many more wins can that really translate into?

Two or three? Maybe. But the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals were the only AFC teams to hit 11 wins last year. It’s hard to do. And, to Brandt’s point, may be even tougher to do in a stacked AFC this year. The Steelers aren’t in that class yet.

For sure, the Steelers should be tangibly better in 2023.

Unfortunately, the guarantee that their improvements will materially reshape their place in the AFC hierarchy is far less secure.

Listen: Thursday’s Bella Construction “Letters From Camp” podcast with OLBs Alex Highsmith and Markus Golden