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Tim Benz: Predicting the Steelers' difficult 3-game stretch between AFC North games

Tim Benz
| Tuesday, October 21, 2025 6:00 a.m.
AP
Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons celebrates after a win over the Detroit Lions on Sept. 7.

After splitting back-to-back games in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) are about to play three straight games out of the division before a rematch against the Cincinnati Bengals (3-4).

Those games won’t be easy.

On Sunday night, the Green Bay Packers come to town. Then the Steelers host Indianapolis (Nov. 2) before going out to Los Angeles for another Sunday night game against the Chargers (Nov. 9).

The three teams are a combined 14-5-1. They are all currently in a playoff position. It’s likely to be the most difficult three-game stretch of the season for the Steelers.

Let’s predict how it’s going to go.

• The Packers arrive at Acrisure Stadium at 4-1-1. They are coming off a 27-23 win in Arizona last week. Green Bay got six sacks out of its defense, three from Penn State product Micah Parsons.

3RD SACK FOR MICAH PARSONS

GBvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/q7JkCvdQ0m

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

It’s safe to assume the Steelers offense would attempt to load up against him as they successfully did against Browns star pass rusher Myles Garrett in Week 6 of the season.

Green Bay had the ball for less than 26 minutes in that game. They only put up 168 yards passing and 94 yards rushing while committing 10 penalties and failing on 7 of 10 third-down conversions.

Quarterback Jordan Love has a 10-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 108.1 passer rating, seventh-best in the NFL. The team’s 26.3 points per game are also eighth-best in the NFL.

Green Bay hasn’t won in Pittsburgh since 1970 (0-6). The Steelers are 15-11 at home on Sunday Night football and have won 73% of their prime-time games at home. Tomlin teams have a knack for winning games after everybody has buried them for a bad upset loss.

According to BetMGM, against the spread, Mike Tomlin covers 62% of the time. His team is a field goal underdog Sunday night.

Via BetRivers.com, Green Bay has come up short covering the spread on the road five times in a row.

Stir in the emotion of Aaron Rodgers playing against his former team — considering the way he did so versus the New York Jets earlier this year — and I’ll take the Steelers, 26-23.

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• The Colts have been the AFC’s best team all year long. They lead the AFC at 6-1. Five of those wins have come within the conference.

Indianapolis has the NFL’s best point differential at plus-92 and the most points scored at 232. Coach Shane Steichen’s offense is second in the NFL at 380 yards per game. They are sixth in passing at 250.1 yards per game and rushing at 130.1.

Running back Jonathan Taylor has 697 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns to lead the NFL in both categories. Quarterback Daniel Jones has an 8.4 yards per attempt average. That’s fourth in football.

JONES TO PIERCE FOR 48 YARDS

INDvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/lKekUynemx

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

Defensively, their 19 sacks are sixth, and their 11 takeaways are third. Twice as head coach of the Colts and once as offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, Steichen has beaten Tomlin and the Steelers.

I expect him to do so again in two weeks, 28-13.

• The game versus the Chargers in two weeks is tricky. That’s also a Sunday night affair. The franchises have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games against each other, with the Steelers winning four of them.

Justin Herbert, batting injury, lost 20-10 in Pittsburgh last year but beat Pittsburgh, 41-37, in 2021 when he threw for 382 yards and ran for 90. At 4-3, the Chargers have won just once in their last four weeks, a 29-27 victory against the woeful Miami Dolphins (1-6).

Herbert leads the NFL in passing with 1,913 yards. The Chargers have two dangerous receivers in Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Neither was great on Sunday during a 38-24 loss to the Colts.

But Herbert still managed to hook up with Keenan Allen 11 times for 119 yards and tight end Oronde Gadsden II seven times for 164 yards. They both scored as well.

oronde gadsden.

???? | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/zRyZnhEqsv

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) October 19, 2025

Check back with me in two weeks. For now, though, I’ll take Los Angeles, 26-24.

So, I’ve got the Steelers at 1-2 over the next three weeks. You wouldn’t have to twist my arm very hard to get that number up to 2-1. That would go a long way toward diluting the impact of that lousy outing in Cincinnati on Thursday.

Should Tomlin’s team do that, they’d be 6-3. Through nine game, that’d still be a game off their pace of a year ago with Russell Wilson taking over for Justin Fields at QB. Yet, given the shaky state of affairs in the AFC North in 2025, that would look pretty good.

Then again, these are the Steelers. When was the last time they followed a script that made sense?

LISTEN: Tim Benz and Steelers Radio Network host Matt Williamson look at the Steelers’ upcoming schedule and their issues in Cincinnati.


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