Tim Benz: Russell Wilson is better than Kenny Pickett. But is he good enough to win in the playoffs?

Upon further review, I made a mistake in how I interacted with many Pittsburgh Steelers fans online in the wake of the team signing former Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson on Sunday night.

I repeatedly said that he’ll probably — probably — be a better option this year than Kenny Pickett. I also stated that he’s a safer bet with a longer track record of success than Mason Rudolph. Plus, believe it or not, Rudolph would likely cost the Steelers a good deal more.

And that’s where I should’ve stopped. Because, quite frankly, that’s all Steelers fans want to hear right now when it comes to their quarterback situation: “Just tell me it’s going to be better than last year!”

I can’t blame you.

Who knows, maybe it could’ve been better in 2023 if Rudolph had played earlier. But that’s water under the West End Bridge at this point. Now Rudolph is likely to go elsewhere. Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, we’ll have Pickett and Wilson. If Wilson starts under center, that ought to upgrade the position.

Based on the nearly universal applause to the move that I heard from Steelers fans online and absorbed in the media coverage, Pittsburgh would have preferred that thesis statement to also be its closing argument.

“Let Russ cook, n’at. Don’t yinz know his 26 touchdahn passes last year are twice as many as Pickett has so far in his career?!”

In this job, though, I’ve gotta take it one step deeper. Instead of just being satisfied spoon-feeding the populous what it wants to hear, I’ve got to ask a few additional tricky questions.

For instance, do we really think Wilson is actually good anymore? Or is he just better than Pickett? Because there is a difference. A big one.

These numbers from football analytics expert Warren Sharp would suggest he isn’t.

some wild marks from Russell Wilson last year

he threw 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage

#1 highest out of 509 QBs since 2005

he threw 62% of his passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage

#2 highest out of 509 QBs since 2005

Sean Payton had no confidence in…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 5, 2024

Last week’s tear down of Wilson by former Broncos Super Bowl winner and Denver sports media personality Mark Schlereth on “The Pat McAfee Show” would lead one to draw the same conclusion. As would the 100 sacks he took during his two years in Denver and his 11-19 record in that time.

That’s to say nothing of Wilson and his renowned diva personality being paid $38 million by Denver this year just to go away nor of his single playoff win since the start of 2017.

That’s exactly one more playoff victory than the Steelers have racked up in that same timeframe, by the way.

Here’s another crucial question. Is Wilson a good signing as a potential starting quarterback, or just a shrewd business acquisition?

Because I can tell you the vast majority of interactions I’ve gotten from Steelers fans lauding this addition seem to have something to do with the fact that Wilson is coming to town on the veteran minimum, as opposed to, for instance, Kirk Cousins and the $45 million per year he just got from Atlanta.

Personally, I don’t mind paying big money for a quarterback. I’m not a big fan of bargain-hunting when looking for someone to fill the most important position on the field just so the fanbase can crow about their team’s frugal cap savings.

I’d cosign on what Atlanta did. Pay for the quarterback, worry about the slot corner and rotational inside linebacker later.

Plus, one hand doesn’t wash the other on that one. At 11:20 Sunday night, was anyone anticipating the Steelers aggressively diving into free agency regardless of who the other QB with Pickett was going to be?

What? Now that Wilson is going to make a few million less than they would’ve paid Rudolph, they are going to spend like drunken sailors on the UFA market? Short of it actually being Cousins, that could’ve happened regardless of whoever Pickett’s competition was going to be.

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Admittedly, my memory is a little fuzzy, but in the months after Ben Roethlisberger retired, I seem to remember being told it was dumb for me to suggest that the Steelers chase big-money quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr or Wilson two years ago when they were all available.

I was ripped on social media because I didn’t like the allegedly shrewd business maneuvering that resulted in the Steelers’ legendary signing of future Hall of Famer … Mitch Trubisky.

Yeah, remember that? The dumb Bears broke Trubisky! But the Steelers — with offensive coordinating mastermind Matt Canada at the helm — were going to fix him.

Now what? The Steelers are going to fix Wilson after Denver broke him?

Granted, none of those guys had much success over the past two years, but neither did Trubisky.

I’m just confused by the logic. Prior to the 2022 season, Steelers fans laughed at the Broncos for spending huge amounts of cash on a guy who was renowned as high maintenance and feared to be on the downside of his career. Two years later, Wilson proved to be high maintenance and on the downside of his career.

But now he’s cheap and on a one-year deal. So that makes this a good signing high maintenance and on the downside of his career.

Really? Does it? Is it a good signing? Or is it a simply low-risk one? Is he a good player? Or just affordable?

I’m leaning toward the latter.

If Deshaun Watson returns healthy in Cleveland this year, the Steelers still may have the fourth-best QB in the AFC North between Wilson or Pickett. Like Pickett, Wilson is also still behind (at least) Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa and probably Trevor Lawrence on the AFC food chain.

Wilson makes the Steelers a little more threatening at QB. Does he make the team good enough to break their playoff win drought?

Eh, I’ve already said enough things people don’t want to hear in March. Let’s save that one for September.