Tim Benz: Take the 'over' in Steelers vs. Broncos — but only if they play a doubleheader

At last check, the BetRivers.com over-under point total for Sunday’s Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos game at Heinz Field was 39.5 points.

Regardless of which two teams are playing, normally my first reaction upon seeing a number like that attached to an NFL game would be, “Man! That’s gotta be too low, right?”

But for the 2021 Steelers vs. the 2021 Broncos, my first reaction was, “Near 40 points? What are they going to do? Play the game twice and add the totals together?”

Yes, points are going to be at a premium Sunday on the North Shore. Both teams’ defenses generally give up very few. Both teams’ offenses struggle to reach the end zone.

In the case of the Steelers, if you don’t count the special teams blocked punt for a touchdown in Week 1, the team is scoring just 15 points per game over the first four weeks. That would be the second-lowest average in the league in front of only the lowly New York Jets.

But, even after last week’s struggle in Green Bay, the defense in Pittsburgh is yielding 23.3 points per game. That’s a respectable 13th in the NFL.

In Denver, the Broncos are fifth in total defense and in stopping the run. They are sixth against the pass. Their average points allowed of 12.3 is second best in the league behind only the Carolina Panthers. But their pedestrian 20.8 points per game is only 21st in football.

On Thursday, Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler wasn’t shy about acknowledging that his team’s unit is essentially playing against Denver’s defense as well as its offense.

“We’ve got to play better than theirs,” Butler said of the Broncos defense. “Their head coach (Vic Fangio) is a defensive guy. You know they are going to have a good defense. If I was a head coach, that’s what I’d do. And I’d run the ball. That’s what they do. And that’s what they do well.”

To Butler’s point, the Broncos are averaging 121.8 yards per game on the ground, 11th in the NFL. The Steelers are dead last at 55.3 rush yards per game.

The Broncos are using a 1-2 punch at running back with former Pro Bowler Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams. Gordon has 248 yards on 51 carries. Williams is at 186 yards on 46 attempts.

One specific run by Williams last week during a 23-7 loss to Baltimore was one of the highlights of the NFL season.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS ????

????: #BALvsDEN on CBS
????: NFL app pic.twitter.com/88aqDlawBb

— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021

“He’s got great leg drive and contact balance,” coach Mike Tomlin said Tuesday. “He’s a tough tackle. He has a small hit surface. Not a small guy, but a small hit surface. I think that’s what allows him to run through some tackles and maintain that body balance and produce some of the runs that you’ve seen.”

Neither defense is taking the ball away at a tremendous rate. Denver has five takeaways. The Steelers have only three. Defensive lineman Cameron Heyward says one of the reasons for that is the Steelers defense hasn’t stressed opposing offenses enough.

First and foremost, opponents have been playing ahead a lot of the time. Secondly, the defense has done a poor job of getting itself in advantageous down and distance situations.

“We haven’t been stopping the run good enough, putting them in situations where they have to pass,” Heyward said. “Some (un)lucky bounces. Whether we haven’t got them or we have our hands on it and haven’t caught it. We have to really force the issue. … We haven’t finished enough plays. There is still a lot out there for us.”

On the topic of “forcing the issue,” it might behoove the Steelers to do so when the Broncos are starting drives on their half of the field. Perhaps a blitz or a confusing look in hopes of generating a turnover and shortening the field for the club’s struggling offense against Denver’s stout defense.

“You’ve got to have a situation where we can get them in a position when we can come after them a little bit,” Butler said. “In terms of the running game, if they continually get us in third-and-1, third-and-3. Then it is going to be hard to dictate to them what they can do and get after them. If we win on first and second down and get them in third down, then we’ve got a good chance of creating turnovers.”

One thing that would help the Steelers’ chances when it comes to creating turnovers is if Drew Lock plays quarterback instead of Teddy Bridgewater. Lock was responsible for 19 turnovers in 13 games last year when he was the starter.

Through four starts this season, Bridgewater has yet to throw an interception. Lock threw one in his lone appearance so far this year. That was in place of Bridgewater who was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion. But he returned to practice Thursday.

Regardless, Sunday could be a bad one for fantasy football owners who have Steelers and Broncos players in this game.

In fact, it might be a fantasy for either team to hit double digits on the scoreboard. The final score in this one may look more like Penguins vs. Avalanche than Steelers vs. Broncos.

Then again, with Colorado’s skilled skaters and Tristan Jarry in net for the Peng…never mind. Forget I brought it up.

In Friday’s “Breakfast With Benz” podcast, Tim Benz is joined by the Denver Gazette’s Broncos beat writer George Stoia to preview Sunday’s Steelers vs Broncos game.

Listen: Tim Benz and Broncos beat writer George Stoia preview the Steelers-Broncos game