Tim Benz: Thursday's game vs. Vikings is a microcosm of contradictions for 2021 Steelers

On one hand, I’ve found 2021 to be perhaps the hardest season to prognosticate in terms of picking the Steelers. Week to week, I’m not sure I’ve ever struggled as much to get a handle on whether the Steelers will win or lose — let alone if they’d cover the point spread or not.

Big picture, though, the team has become exactly what I thought it would be coming out of training camp.

I repeatedly stated during our “Madden Monday” podcasts, on ESPN Pittsburgh, and on WPXI-TV that they’d likely be around a nine-win team. In fact, I (half-jokingly) predicted they’d probably go 8-8-1 just so Steelers defenders could continue to say, “Well, they’ve never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin, you know!”

Sure enough, they got the tie out of the way. Now, can they get to eight wins? That may be the harder part.

Yes, even at 6-5-1 with five games left to play.

Thursday night’s Steelers game in Minnesota is a microcosm of what I’ve found to be the unpredictable nature of 2021 for Tomlin’s team.

On one hand, I said when the schedule came out that this game had “disappointing Steelers loss” written all over it.

Short week. Road trip. A potential emotional pitfall coming off the home game against the Baltimore Ravens. I figured the Steelers would probably be within a game or two of .500 by Game 13. I presumed they’d desperately need this win for playoff positioning. And that the Vikings would likely be a game or two under .500 and in the same boat.

Low and behold, here we are and that’s exactly the case. Even the oddsmakers agree with me. The 5-7 Vikings are favored at home by 3.5 points.

Yet here I am pivoting and leaning toward picking the Steelers. Someone stop me!

It’s the ultimate case of, “I should know better.” I obviously do. I laid it out for myself seven months ago. It’s played out perfectly. And here I am about to go the other way.

My mother always told me I was never any good at learning my lesson after making a mistake the first time.

Here’s my logic behind, um, defying my own logic:

• In the “We Both Stink So Bad We Can’t Beat The Lions Bowl” (brought to you by VisitDetroit.com), the Steelers are about a month removed from their sickening 16-16 tie against the Lions. Whereas the Vikings are only a few days removed from losing to them, and giving Detroit its first win of the season.

Based on what Dave Schwartz of KARE-11 in Minneapolis told us on Thursday’s “Breakfast With Benz” podcast, the team, the fans, and the whole city, in general, are far from moving on from that defeat. He described it as a “the sky is falling” kind of week.

• Minnesota wide receiver Adam Thielen isn’t going to play. Neither is tackle Christian Darrisaw.

Schwartz also said we should be cautious about how much to read into Dalvin Cook’s limited return to practice this week. Schwartz is dubious of how close to game-ready performance the star running back may genuinely be after suffering what was believed to be a significant shoulder injury Nov. 28.

In other words, don’t be shocked if Cook’s level of potential participation is perhaps being inflated by Vikings coach Mike Zimmer to keep the Steelers guessing and preparing for him. As Schwartz said, Zimmer is in “desperation mode” and has a reputation for saying “the truth in the way he wants to … It’s selective truth.”

• For the Steelers, playing on Thursdays and coming off of Ravens games don’t have quite the checkered past that you may think.

According to VSiN.com, in their last 17 Thursday games, the Steelers are 10-7 straight up and 9-6-2 against the spread.

VSiN numbers also say that against the spread, the Steelers are 6-8-1 in their last 15 games following a Baltimore game. Not great. But not as bad as I thought either. Plus, while last week’s Steelers versus Ravens game was tense and emotionally draining, it wasn’t quite as physically grueling as many Baltimore-Pittsburgh showdowns tend to be.

• Steelers running back Najee Harris got 26 touches against the Ravens. But he wasn’t exactly over-exposed to big hits. The team dotted in Benny Snell more effectively than it had all season, as well. The Vikings rush defense is 28th in the NFL at 131.5 yards allowed per game. That’s even worse than the Steelers (26th, 130.9). I expect the Steelers to shorten the game and get some yards on the ground.

This game reeks of a Steelers letdown after the big win against Baltimore. If they had been favored by 3.5 points, I would take Minnesota on that line in a heartbeat. But I can’t help myself on this one. I’m not sure if the Steelers are going to win. If I’m getting more than a field goal, though, I’m taking it. The Steelers will cover.

And I even think they’ll win.

Maybe. Kinda. Well, come to think of it …

You know what, let’s just stick with the points and end it now.

You can hear Tim’s full podcast with Dave Schwartz of KARE-11 in Minnesota here.