Tim Benz: We've heard all week why the Steelers won't beat the Chiefs. If they do, 3 things must happen

By now, you’ve probably heard a dozen reasons why the Kansas City Chiefs are going to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Sunday night’s wild-card round playoff game.

Unfortunately, I agree with just about all of them. If you play this game 100 times, the Chiefs probably win 95.

But — and get ready to read this line for the rest of your life — if the Jacksonville Jaguars can beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 to get the Steelers into the playoffs, “anything is possible”!

So, if the Steelers are to upset the Chiefs on Sunday night, here’s a three-pronged way to make it happen.

1. Chiefs coach Andy Reid mysteriously benches quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

2. The other 10 offensive starters suffer hamstring injuries in an overly complicated TikTok dance video led by Mahomes’ JuJu-esque social media star brother, Jackson.

3. Every defensive starter winds up on the covid list.

That’s the most likely and direct path to a Steelers victory Sunday.

Obviously.

Short of those things happening, though, here’s another three-pronged set of variables that may be the formula.

1. T. J. Watt goes off

The Steelers All-Pro linebacker has yet to bring his regular season success to the playoffs.

Sunday would be a good day to start.

In two postseason games, Watt has not registered a sack and has just two quarterback hits and three solo tackles.

On Sunday night, Watt will be going against Chiefs tackle Andrew Wylie who ranks 71st out of 85 qualified tackles in pass blocking (52nd overall), according to Pro Football Focus. In the regular season loss for the Steelers in Kansas City on Dec. 26 (36-10), Watt was battling cracked ribs. He had just one tackle and was held without a sack.

So Watt needs to have a big impact. Not only get a few sacks, but also pen Mahomes in the pocket so he can’t escape and throw on the run and off platform.

Things he does as well as — or better than — any quarterback in the league.

2. Win the turnover battle

Decisively. I’m talking, like, 3-0 or 4-1.

That’s not too big of an ask actually. Over the last five games, the Steelers had 11 takeaways. The Chiefs had 25 giveaways in the regular season. That’s tied with the Tennessee Titans for the most of any playoff team and the ninth most in the league.

In the regular season meeting between the clubs, the Chiefs forced three turnovers and committed none. In their last five games, they have just two giveaways.

Going back to the first point, if Watt and the other pass rushers do their jobs, maybe a strip sack or a pressured interception occurs as a result.

And when the Steelers get those turnovers, they need to turn them into touchdowns. Not field goals. Or punts. Or turnovers right back to K.C.

Of the seven takeaways they forced between the Week 15 win over the Tennessee Titans and the three they grabbed from the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday (not to mention foiling a fake punt), the Steelers only converted one of those ensuing possessions into a touchdown.

That can’t happen again at Arrowhead.

3. Score on defense and/or special teams

You know what? Scratch that. Drop the “or.”

Do both. Get a scoop and score or a pick six. Isn’t Miles Killebrew due for another blocked kick? Ray-Ray McCloud has had a nice year returning kicks and punts. How about breaking one for a touchdown?

This will be the 18th game of the season. We know the offense is incapable of winning a scoring matchup with the Chiefs. It’s gonna need some help from the other units on the field.

Sure, there are other possibilities that could come into play. The Steelers could win the first half for a change. The offensive line could grind the Chiefs defensive front into pulp and make things easier for a banged-up Najee Harris. The potential return of JuJu Smith-Schuster could be some sort of magic elixir for the passing game.

But I’m trying to build off of things I know the Steelers can do well and at least one area where the Chiefs have been sloppy at times this season.

I’d rather pin my hopes on seeing a double rainbow twice, than a pot of gold at the end of a single one for the first time.

Or, you know, rooting for the Jackson Mahomes thing to happen.