Tim Benz: What a free agent contract for JuJu Smith-Schuster may look like and why the projections make sense

If the Steelers were to prioritize signing receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, what would that contract look like?

And what other teams might set the market?

As mentioned in a recent edition of “First Call,” NFL insider John Clayton speculated on 93.7 The Fan that the Las Vegas Raiders would be a potential landing spot for Smith-Schuster to the tune of roughly $14 million per season.

Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus predicted Smith-Schuster will wind up with the New York Jets for four years at $68 million. That’s an average of $17M per year. The website outlined the potential deal at “$35M total guaranteed, $22M fully guaranteed at signing.”

Spotrac.com estimates Smith-Schuster’s market value closer to that PFF figure, at just over $16 million per year on a long-term deal.

So how big of a gap is that $3 million range? And how accurate of a potential window is it?

Well, when you consider some current NFL comparisons, pretty big. And, when you consider the names involved and the level of production, pretty darn accurate.

Based on Spotrac’s annual average values for wide receivers, if Smith-Schuster gets $17 million per year, he’d be seventh in the NFL among players at the position behind only DeAndre Hopkins (Arizona Cardinals), Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons), Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers), Amari Cooper (Dallas Cowboys), Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints), Odell Beckham Jr. (Cleveland Browns) and Tyreek Hill (Kansas City Chiefs).

That’d put him in front of the likes of Mike Evans (Tampa Bay), Davante Adams (Green Bay) and Stefon Diggs (Buffalo).

JuJu is good. He ain’t that good. His 97 receptions last year were ninth in the league, and his nine touchdowns were good for a six-way tie for 10th.

However, his 831 yards were only 38th in the league (and third on his own team), his 48 first downs were 36th in football and his per catch average of 8.3 was 126th. That’s buried among a lot of running backs and tight ends.

Therefore, the $14 million average annual value approximation for Vegas from Clayton still may seem generous, but it’s also a lot closer to reasonable. Especially when you consider — at that AAV — Smith-Schuster would slot in at 17th in the league, right behind Cleveland’s Jarvis Landry ($15.1 million), Adams ($14.5 million) and Diggs ($14.4 million).

Also, look at who would be immediately behind Smith-Schuster on that list: Alshon Jeffery (Philadelphia Eagles, $13 million), former Steeler Emmanuel Sanders (New Orleans Saints, $12 million), Tyrell Williams (soon to be released by Las Vegas) and Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals, $10.75 million).

To me, that feels like much more appropriate company for Smith-Schuster. In fact, my two biggest takeaways are:

• Wow! Some of those names immediately above are overpaid.

• Wow! Diggs and Adams are underpaid.

It’s obvious that Clayton’s $14 million number is, at the very least, a starting floor for discussions about keeping Smith-Schuster in Pittsburgh. And one that will probably be exceeded to a level closer to those other $16 million and $17 million estimates from PFF and Sportrac.

Especially when one considers that fellow free-agent wide receivers like Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson II and Kenny Golladay are likely to inflate the market.

“Over The Cap” estimates that the transition tag for a wide receiver this year is going to be $14.2 million. And the franchise is going to be $16 million. If the Steelers franchise Smith-Schuster, his 2021 cap hit would be behind only quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s $41 million.

As a measuring stick, Antonio Brown never had a cap number greater than $13.6 million (2017) during his time in Pittsburgh. And his greatest one-year cash payout was $19.9 million (also 2017).

Given that the club is still at a projected $30 million over a regressing 2021 salary cap (likely in the range of $180 million), allocating that much for Smith-Schuster seems far-fetched. Especially with Chase Claypool, James Washington and Diontae Johnson providing a pretty decent threesome from which to begin building next year’s receivers room.

For all of his annoying dancing, TikTok-ing and pregame bulletin board material, Smith-Schuster was tough, good in the red zone and more reliable than many of the Steelers drop-happy pass catchers. What he lacked in big plays, he made up for in necessity in last year’s painful quick-release offensive approach.

That’s why Smith-Schuster is likely to get paid what you may have previously considered to be an outlandish figure. But don’t expect the Steelers to keep up in the bidding war.