What the betting odds say about Steelers’ chances in 2023

BY SHANE JACKSON | Home Field Sports Contributor

Mike Tomlin doesn’t have losing seasons. That’s not an opinion; the longtime Pittsburgh Steelers coach has yet to finish below .500 since taking over the team in 2007.

Even when expectations are low, Tomlin manages to get the most out of his team. With a rookie quarterback under center last year, the Steelers went 9-8 and finished third in the AFC North. This came one year after going 9-7 en route to a Wild Card appearance in Ben Roethlisberger’s final season as the signal caller.

Oddsmakers have learned to not count out Tomlin’s team, as evidenced by the Steelers’ win total as of early April. Pittsburgh has an over/under of 8.5 victories in the market, with the over juiced to -115 and the under priced at -105.

Why is that significant? Well, because the Steelers had a win total of 7.5 last year when the over was listed at -125. It marked the team’s lowest preseason win total under Tomlin, according to the database at sportsoddshistory.com.

With Kenny Pickett entering his second season as the team’s quarterback, the Steelers now have a better standing in a competitive AFC North.

The Baltimore Ravens have a win total of 8.5 (over trading at -120) amid the Lamar Jackson saga that has dominated the offseason storylines. The Cleveland Browns also have an over/under of 8.5, though their value on the over is going for -175.

Leading the way as the class of the division, the Cincinnati Bengals enter the year with a win total of 11.5. Their under is actually juiced to -125, despite winning 12 games last season and reaching the AFC championship game.

Elsewhere in the futures market, the Steelers are being priced at +135 to make the playoffs in the market. This means they have an implied probability of 42.5% of making the dance for the third time in the last four years. The “no” option in this two-way market is trading at -160, which has an implied probability of 61.5%.

This does put Pittsburgh behind its division rivals at this point in the offseason. The Bengals are -380 to make the playoffs, while the Ravens are being listed at -160. The Browns are being offered at +110 to return to the postseason for the first time since 2020.

Sportsbooks are offering plenty more futures markets, but the win total and playoff odds should help set expectations for the upcoming NFL season. It is worth noting that these odds will change, as teams continue to bolster their respective rosters over the next several months.

The best chance to do that is in the 2023 NFL Draft, which is slated to take place during the final weekend of April in Kansas City, Missouri. The Steelers have three top-50 picks, including the No. 17 and No. 32 (from Chicago) selections, that could help improve their chances for the upcoming season.

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