Why Penn State TE Theo Johnson is rising up NFL draft boards: ‘Traits over production’

Dane Brugler evaluated more than 100 NFL prospects at the Senior Bowl two weeks ago. Brugler, the lead draft expert for The Athletic, spent hours watching reps in Mobile, Ala., taking note of who stood out and are potential risers in the 2024 draft class.

Brugler came away impressed with several players, including Penn State’s Theo Johnson. A captain and offensive weapon for the Nittany Lions last year, Johnson was named one of Brugler’s winners of the Senior Bowl as the top tight end in attendance.

“It wasn’t really a surprise,” Brugler told PennLive. “With Theo, we knew he had the potential to be a Day Two pick. That’s something we’ve talked about for a while.”

That puts Johnson in the conversation to be the third tight end off the board. Georgia’s Brock Bowers, who did not attend the Senior Bowl, is a possible top-10 pick. Texas standout Ja’Tavion Sanders is a fringe first-round prospect. But behind them, the position is wide open.

Johnson is ranked as the No. 84 prospect and the No. 4 tight end in the draft class by ESPN. He sits behind Bowers, Sanders and Ohio State’s Cade Stover and above Iowa’s Erick All, Florida State’s Jaheim Bell, Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott and Michigan’s AJ Barner.

Johnson could further cement himself as a Day Two option at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, should he run in the 4.5-second 40-yard dash range that’s expected.

Johnson’s impressive week at the Senior Bowl started at pre-practice measurements. The 6-foot-6 target weighed 257 pounds with an 81 1/4-inch wingspan and 10-inch hands. Then, Johnson put his hands, weight and speed to work in front of scouts and coaches.

“You look at the traits, and you see a good looking athlete with size who’s smooth in his routes, smooth at the catch point, has acceleration to get down the seam and run away from coverage,” Brugler said. “He has a decent catch radius, catches the ball well in stride, has no problem climbing the ladder and can adjust to inaccurate passes.

“He needs to be more consistent as a blocker, understanding leverage, showing he has the toughness to take on NFL d-ends. But as a pass catcher, it’s what teams are looking for.”

Brugler pointed out that Johnson wasn’t a big part of Penn State’s offense. “But that offense had its own issues,” he said. The Nittany Lions struggled to generate explosive plays in the passing game last year, leading to offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich’s in-season dismissal.

Johnson found the end zone frequently; his seven touchdowns were tied for the second-most in the FBS. But he had only 34 catches for 341 yards last year. Johnson logged four catches of 20 yards or more, two fewer than he did in 2022. It was obvious that the athletic, big-bodied target could provide more for the Nittany Lions the last two seasons if afforded the opportunity.

To compare 2023 stats, Sanders had 45 receptions and 682 yards for Texas. Sinnott led Kansas State with 676 yards on 49 catches. Stover and Bell each cleared 500 yards receiving.

“When you’re drafting a four-year tight end, you expect him to have more than 350 yards in any of those four seasons, and he didn’t,” Brugler said. “He didn’t have over 1,000 yards in his career. That’s not ideal.”

Brugler paused.

“But the motto of NFL scouting is traits over production.”

Johnson has the traits to hear his name called in the second or third round when the NFL draft rolls around in April. He showed that on the field at Penn State and at the Senior Bowl — and he has a chance to show it again in a couple weeks at Lucas Oil Stadium.