For the sixth time in franchise history, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the opportunity to select the best prospect in baseball with the first overall pick in the MLB Draft.

Whether they will do so remains to be seen.

With a deep draft class where LSU teammates Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes are the clear-cut favorites — with a coin flip to determine which is No. 1 — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington was adamant they are considering more than two prospects with the top picks.

The general consensus is the top five players are a cut above the rest, with the right-hander Skenes the only pitcher among a group of outfielders led by college stars in Crews and Florida’s Wyatt Langford and prep stars Max Clark of Franklin, Ind., and Walker Jenkins of South Brunswick, N.C.

“I think those five guys we’re talking about are all potential stars, so it’s a good strategy to take one of those guys and, hopefully, maximize the value of the whole class,” said draft analyst Keith Law of The Athletic. “This year offers the Pirates the possibility to take the third or fourth or fifth guy on the board. They may not be taking the best guy in the draft, but they’re not that far off by taking a guy who’s just a little bit off the top, and saving $1 million or more on his bonus will allow them to get one or more players with subsequent picks. Then their draft class as a whole looks much, much better.”

It wouldn’t be the first time Cherington employed that strategy. When the Pirates picked first overall in 2021, they surprised many by selecting Louisville catcher Henry Davis over prep shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer. Davis signed for a below-slot bonus of $6.5 million, saving the Pirates $1.9 million in bonus money to spend.

After winning the inaugural draft lottery, the Pirates have a bonus pool of $16,185,700 — the third-largest in draft history — with $9,721,000 slotted for the first overall pick. The Pirates have five of the first 104 selections, including a Competitive Balance Round B choice (No. 67) sandwiched between their second and third-rounders.

“The first choice is really important, to state the obvious,” Cherington said. “Every team’s job is to get as much total talent out of every draft as they can. Historically, when you have the first pick, the biggest portion of that is going to be for the first pick, so we have to consider that. History says that that’s where the best player is going to come from. But the whole draft is important, and our job is to get as much as we can out of it.”

Catch a Tiger

Most mock drafts have the Pirates picking a player from the talented tandem that led the LSU Tigers to their seventh College World Series championship. Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, Sporting News and ESPN have the Pirates selecting Skenes, whereas CBS and FanGraphs have them choosing Crews.

The 6-foot, 205-pound Crews, a natural center fielder, was a three-year starter at LSU who batted .426/.567/.713 with 16 doubles, 18 home runs and 70 RBIs and had more walks (71) than strikeouts (46) in winning the Golden Spikes Award as college baseball’s best player this season.

MLB Network draft analyst Dan O’Dowd, a former Colorado Rockies general manager, believes the best position player will provide the most long-term Wins Above Replacement.

“I think Dylan Crews is a great-looking position player,” O’Dowd said. “I put a comp on him as a young Andrew McCutchen. He’s going to stay in center field. He does a lot of things well.”

But the more O’Dowd watched Skenes, the more he started to favor the 6-6 power pitcher. Skenes went 12-2 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, recording 209 strikeouts against 20 walks in 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts and was dominant in the CWS.

What impressed O’Dowd about Skenes, a converted catcher who transferred from Air Force, was his fastball command with a velocity that regularly tops 100 mph to go with a high-spin slider and changeup.

“From my perspective of watching players for 35-40 years, I don’t think I’ve ever seen one as unique as this guy,” O’Dowd said. “Will be there more Dylan Crews that come along in the future of the draft? I’m sure there will be. I’m not sure we’ll see another one like Skenes for many years to come. I think he’s a unicorn.

“I’m not a big believer that you make a pick in the draft based on your big-league club, but very rarely does it line up to where I feel the best player in the draft also is the best need for the club that’s picking him. You put him and Keller at the top of your rotation — I don’t think with Skenes there is much development to do with this guy — and, all of a sudden, their window for me changes dramatically. … It would be hard-pressed for me to pass up on Skenes.”

So why wouldn’t the Pirates pick Crews or Skenes?

Reports that Crews will demand a $10 million signing bonus could price him out of contention for the top pick. The same could be true for Skenes, who comes with the ever-present concern that pitchers are at higher risk for injury and years away from reaching their prime.

That’s why Law bucked the trend and has the Pirates taking Langford in his mock draft released Friday. A three-sport athlete in high school who lost his senior season to the covid-19 pandemic, Langford was a relative unknown until he hit 26 homers as a sophomore at Florida. He followed that with 21 homers and a 1.282 OPS this season.

“Langford has more power upside. He is the sexier player. Crews is the safer player,” Law said. “There’s nothing wrong with either of those things. I don’t say that as a criticism to either of them. It’s what you want, what you value and what’s your risk tolerance.”

Hit and miss

The Pirates’ previous five No. 1 overall choices in the MLB Draft involved an infielder, three right-handed pitchers and a catcher and produced only one All-Star, Gerrit Cole.

Some of their misses were monumental.

When they took Jeff King in 1986, the Pirates passed on stars such as Matt Williams, Kevin Brown and Gary Sheffield. When they took Kris Benson in 1996, they passed on future Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. When they chose Bryan Bullington in 2002, the Pirates passed on Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, 300-home run hitter Prince Fielder and a World Series MVP in Cole Hamels.

The Pirates have never picked a high school prospect with the No. 1 overall choice, but that could change if they choose Clark, a 6-1, 190-pound outfielder nicknamed The Natural. By signing Clark for a below-slot bonus, the Pirates could manipulate their bonus pool. They also have the Nos. 42, 67, 73 and 104 picks in the first four rounds.

“If they take Clark,” Law said, “and their regular second-round pick, extra pick in Comp B and their third-round pick, they have to go over-slot and get some high-ceiling guys and walk away with maybe two more first-round talents, which is what I think they did in 2021.”

With the savings on Davis, the Pirates convinced three top-100 prep stars to skip college and sign for above-slot bonuses. Left-handed pitcher Anthony Solometo, their second-rounder, signed for $2.8 million. Competitive Balance B round pick Lonnie White Jr., an outfielder, signed for $1.5 million. Righty Bubba Chandler, the third-rounder, signed for $3 million.

Whereas that draft lacked depth, Law rates this as a draft with 30-plus players who have received first-round grades. Law compares the draft to building a stock portfolio — the key is to diversify — and wouldn’t blame the Pirates for spreading the bonus money around.

“It’s a pretty fun draft. And names are still popping up. There are guys not on my top 100 who I would be happy to have in my organization,” Law said. “That almost speaks to maybe it’s a better strategy in a year like this to go under slot with the first pick then go crush some high school guys later.”

Cherington sounded prepared for the potential public backlash from the fan base if the Pirates decide to pass on Crews or Skenes and make an outside-the-box choice with the first pick.

“That’s the beauty of it,” Cherington said. “It’s totally reasonable for people to have different opinions on these things. We have to make choices and not everyone is going to agree with those choices all the time, but that’s sort of part of the nature of the business and, really, part of the fun of the business is that you can have different opinions of players.”

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